From: Scott Woods [nittanylion96@hotmail.com]

Sent: Monday, April 16, 2012 10:47 PM

To: Dan Hoelke; danhoelke@hotmail.com; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner

Subject: MBBC XVI - Opening Lines

Somehow the 16th edition of the Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship is only a little more than 30 days away, but things have been very quiet.  Desite agreeing on the course schedule several months ago, and despite a relatively mild winter, warm-up rounds have been few and far between.  As a result, the oddsmakers at the Flamingo Las Vegas Hotel and Casino have held off on publishing the lines for the 2012 MBBC title.  However, with the 2012 MBBC fast approaching, the oddsmakers can wait no longer.  This year's Championship features a solid, although different lineup.  The tournament will open at 2011 champion Eric Drossner's selection, King's North.  Day 2, which normally means a Barefoot double, will instead open at Pine Lakes, with an afternoon round at Grande Dunes.  Day 3 will feature the True Blue/Caledonia combo.  On day 4, the MBBC will finally head to the Barefooot resort to play the popular Love and Fazio courses, and the tournament will wrap up at Crow Creek.  Eric Drossner will be looking for his 6th consecutive title.  Dan Hoelke was the last person other then Drossner to win the title and will be looking for his first title since 2006.  Scott Woods, who has been a bridesmaid in 6 of the last 7 years, will be looking for his first title since 2003.  Paul Rovner, who has not really challenged in some time, will be looking for his first title since 2002.  Here are the odds of each player wnning the title:

Eric Drossner:   3-2

After winning the title for 5 consecutive years, Drossner has finally earned the respect of the oddsmakers, as he has been made a heavy favorite to capture his 6th straight championship.  While Drossner may not have dominated the MBBC over the last 5 years (with the exception of his 9 birdie performance in 2009), he has been incredibly consistent and has, quite simply, found a way to bring the Big Woody back home to his family in Philadelphia.  Drossner has played only once in the 8 months since the 2011 MBBC, in the recent Champions' Challenge with Woods and Rovner at The Golf Course at Glen Mills.  Drossner's performance certainly could not have given his backers very much confidence.  He struggled in all aspects of his game, especially off the tee, where he is generally very solid, and did not have a single legitimate birdie opportunity in route to a 96.  As he tends to do every year, Drossner has suggested that he will not play again until the opening round of the MBBC.  The oddsmakers supect that Drossner will find a way to play another round or two in the next few weeks, but his warm-up rounds will certainly be limited.  Drossner's preparation for the MBBC is also likely to affected by his participation in a softball league and baseball league.  Despite the distractions and the lack of preparation, history suggests that Drossner will be ready to go for his 6th straight title.

Scott Woods:   2-1

Woods has been the most active of the foursome in the 8 months since the 2011 MBBC, playing a handful of rounds since then.  Most notably, Woods played a round in Aruba in November and recorded his first ever eagle and a birdie with rented clubs.  Woods continued to find days to play in December through March and managed to scratch out birdies in several rounds including one in a disastrous round in which he shot 105.  Woods failed to convert his lone birdie opportunity in the Champions' Challenge and did not play particularly well, especially on the greens.  Woods has not been driving the ball very well in any of his warm-up rounds and there are rumors that he is seriously considering buying a new driver before the MBBC.  Woods hopes to play 4-5 more warm-up rounds before the MBBC, but the key to his chances of winning the 2012 title remains his ability to record multiple birdie rounds.  Woods has not fired 2 birdies in a round since 2008 and the oddsmakers believe he will need to do that in order to win the title.

Dan Hoelke: 7-2

The oddsmakers appear to have come to the realization that the Dan Hoelke who dominated the MBBC from 2004 - 2006 is gone and likely not coming back.  They also recognize that the player who has struggled over the past few years is also not the true Dan Hoelke.   The reality likely lies somewhere in between.  Hoelke showed glimpses last year when he fired 2 birdies in the opening round and 4 birdies in the first 4 rounds.  But Hoelke's title aspirations were ultimately undone by the group's decision to play 3 rounds in one day.  Hoelke literally wilted in the stifling heat and fell out of contention, when he failed to birdie in those 3 rounds.  The oddsmakers believe that Hoelke's performance in the first 4 rounds is a sign of things to come.  However, Hoelke has not exactly bolstered those expectations by playing a grand total of 9 holes since the 2011 MBBC.  Hoelke failed to birdie in those 9 holes, but reportedly played fairly well in less than ideal conditions.  Hoelke is anxious for the 2012 MBBC, but it's unclear how many warm-up rounds he will play before then.  Even a few warm-up round birdies could give Hoelke confidence to make a title run.

Paul Rovner:  12-1

The biggest development in the last few weeks was the performance of Paul Rovner in the Champions' Challenge.  Rovner played fairly well, but, more importantly, fired the only 2 birdies on the day.  He also made a mulligan birdie on another hole and have clearly made the oddsmakers think about their annual establishing of Rovner as the doormat of the MBBC.  The oddsmakers certainly don't suddenly consider Rovner a contender for the 2012 title, but his performance in the Champions' Challenge has to make him the darkhorse.  Rovner may very well be the most prepared for the MBBC, as he will be playing 2-3 times in the Bahamas just a few weeks before the MBBC.  If Rovner can make even a single birdie during that trip and continue to build up his confidence, he could be a factor come late May and, at this point, is certainly worth a second look for bettors.