Subject: FW: 2004 MBBC - Updated Odds
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Hoelke, Dan (HNA) [mailto:Dan.Hoelke@hjheinz.com]
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 1:55 PM
To: 'Scott Woods'; Hoelke, Dan (HNA); Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner
Subject: RE: 2004 MBBC - Updated Odds

Great job Scotty.....I'm on break from my training and had time for a quick read.....just to set the record straight, I had a birdie at IWT...I think it was like #15 on the International course....actually, I believe it was the hole that started the "infamous" discussion of "Does an eagle count as a birdie??" (which it should, by the way)......had a really legit shot at a relatively short eagle putt and left it short like my johnson....
-----Original Message-----
From: Scott Woods [mailto:nittanylion96@hotmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 1:34 PM
To: dan.hoelke@hjheinz.com; edrossner@haverfordtrust.com; provner@haverfordtrust.com
Subject: 2004 MBBC - Updated Odds

After months of uncertainty about whether or not the 2004 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship would even be played, the members of the MBBCGA have finally reached an agreement to move the tournament back one month and shorten it from nine rounds to seven. The 2004 MBBC will be played from September 17-21 and barring any unforeseen changes, will be played at the following courses:  Wild Wing - Woodstork, Farmstead, Grande Dunes, International World Tour, Barefoot Love, Barefoot Fazio, and The Surf Club.  The reduction in the number of rounds from 9 to 7, clearly puts birdies at an even bigger premium and makes the 2004 MBBC a truly wide-open tournament that anyone can win. Now that the dates and courses have been selected, the Flamingo Las Vegas Hotel and Casino is pleased to announce that the odds to win the 2004 title have been updated and wagers are now being accepted:
 
 
Scott Woods
Opening Line:  1-1
Current Line:   3-2
 
The defending champion's odds have increased slightly since he opened as the early line favorite on December 1, 2003. The sole reason for the increase in Woods' line is the simple fact that Woods has played slightly less than 2 1/2 rounds of golf in 2004, and has done very little to prepare to defend his title. Woods' first warm-up round was several weeks ago in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania when Woods and rival Dan Hoelke slogged through a drizzly nine holes. Despite having not played all year, Woods showed on the Par 3 third hole exactly why he remains the favorite to defend his title. On just his third hole of the year, and, in fact, his first Par 3 of the year, Woods fired a dart to within 1 foot of the cup for a tap-in birdie. Woods played rather poorly the rest of the day, and the round was called after 9 holes, despite the fact that Woods and Hoelke wanted to continue.  Woods did play the next morning in the impromptu Champions' Challenge, but was unable to add to his birdie total for the weekend. Finally, Woods played again this weekend in the Philadelphia Classic at Bella Vista Golf Course.  Woods played solidly and had only 1 or 2 legitimate birdie opportunities, but was unable to convert. Once again, many people are questioning Woods's attitude and preparation for the tournament. As usual Woods is playing very little and appears to have a very nonchalant attitude about defending his title. Some believe this is pure cockiness on Woods' part and that he believes he can simply show up and win the title again this year.  Many point to Woods's actions prior to this weekend's tournament as evidence of his cocky attitude.  With a 9:00 tee time, Woods showed up at 8:59, and was escorted from his car to the first tee box to begin the round. His tardiness also resulted in Eric Drossner having to pay for Woods's round, which has created some animosity between the players given their history of money Woods owed Drossner. Woods downplayed his actions, citing incorrect directions as the reason for his late arrival, apologized and vowed to repay Drossner within the next four years.  Woods asserts that he makes no assumptions about his ability to defend the title. He is aware that this year's tournament is likely to be very hotly contested, especially with fewer rounds being played. Woods has no real explanation for his birdie making ability. He has an uncanny ability to not play for extended periods of time, and birdie in his first round back. Many believe that Woods will be the player most effected by the reduction in rounds from 9 to 7.  In fact, sources reported that Woods was extremely upset when the announcement was made regarding the changes in this year's format.  He pushed for an 8th round to be played, but was overruled by the other members of the MBBCGA.  Woods tends to be the most consistent player in the MBBC when it comes to making birdies.  While he is known as the only player to fire back to back birdies (a feat he has accomplished on three separate occassions) Woods generally tends to plod along and birdie about once a day. With nine rounds being played in previous years, Woods generally had enough time to accumulate enough birdies to win the title. However, with fewer rounds this year, Woods will not have the luxury of "letting the birdies happen."  Instead, Woods may have to force the issue in order to create birdies.  This will be a different style of play for Woods, and many people are not confident he will be able to adapt. The reduction int he number of rounds being played does work in Woods's favor in one regard; as the defending champion, Woods must be beaten outright in order to lose the title. In the event of tie, which is extremely possible with fewer rounds, Woods is named the champion.
 
Dan Hoelke
Opening Line:  7-2
Current Line:   3-1
 
Betting on Hoelke has been heavy over the past few weeks, thus lowering his odds to 3-1.  Hoelke returned from his honeymoon in Hawaii and headed for Hilton Head, where he successfully defended his title in the Hilton Head Birdie Championship, with one birdie in two rounds.  Despite the fact that it was the only birdie Hoelke has made in 5 or 6 rounds, once again betting on Hoelke has been heavy, as many expect that this will be the year that Hoelke puts it all together. Many believe that this year's tournament sets up perfectly for Hoelke. The tournament has been moved back a month allowing Hoelke additional time to recover from his offseason schedule, specifically his recent honeymoon to Hawaii and his recent appearance in the HHBC. The additional month also gives Hoelke more time to play warm-up rounds, although Hoelke is generally the most prepared of the foursome when the MBBC arribves. The reduction in number of rounds would also seem to be beneficial to Hoelke.  Over the last 2 tournaments Hoelke has suffered through several round birdie droughts.  Hoelke has been unable to offer an explanation for the droughts, but it is widely believed that the grueling nine round format takes its toll on Hoelke, and he wilts in the hot August heat and pressure of the tournament. Hoelke has denied this as a factor, but, again, no other explanation has been offered. Hoelke is the most explosive member of the foursome, capable of birdying any hole at any time. If Hoelke can strike early and often, it's possible that this year's tournament will be a runaway. Another major factor in Hoelke's favor is the selection of Grande Dunes as the site of one of the rounds of the tournament. It is no secret that Hoelke loves this site and has been a birdie making machine the previous two times the tournament was held at Grande Dunes. In his magical run to the title in 2001, Hoelke fired 2 birdies to seal the championship, and last year Hoelke fired 2 more birdies at his favorite course. Fans are anticipating even more fireworks from Hoelke at Grande Dunes this year and there is even speculation that it will be the first 3 birdie round in MBBC history. Hoelke is also excited about the MBBC's return to International World Tour, another favorite of his. Curiously, no member of the MBBC birdied during the tournament's first appearance at IWT several year's ago, but, again, Hoelke appears comfortable at IWT and this could lead to another birdie barrage. 
 
Eric Drossner
Opening Line:  20-1
Current Line:   27-1
 
After years of believing in Drossner's potential, it appears that fans have finally given up on the annual darkhorse of the tournament. It was believed that Drossner had the ability to be a factor in the championship every year and to compete on a regular basis with Woods and Hoelke.  However, Drossner's consistent failures in the tournament have led many to conclude that Drossner just does not have what it takes to close the gap between him and Woods and Hoelke. As has been noted in the past, Drossner is a horrific putter and demonstrated that again this weekend, when he blew a 4-5 foot straight birdie putt. The 2003 MBBC was the first tournament in which official putting stats were kept. Drossner's inability with the putter was well known among the players and fans of the MBBC, given his history of asking balls to "turn" after putting, asking himself if he was even looking at the hole, and the infamous (yes, more than famous) Drossner slam-dunk of the golf ball into the cup after a missed putt. However, many were stunned at Drossner's horrific putting stats from the 2003 tournament and find it hard to believe that he is that bad of a putter. In 2003 Drossner had the worst average # of putts per hole (2.07) and was the only player to average more than 2 putts per hole. Drossner led the tournament in total three-putts with 33, 7 more than the next player (Paul Rovner with 26). Drossner's lowest number of putts in a round was 34, the worst of the foursome, and he holds the record for the most putts in a round with 43.  Finally, perhaps the most telling statistic and the one that most reflects Drossner's inability to birdie, Drossner had the fewest number of 1 putts in the 2003 tournament with only 24.  The second lowest was Rovner with 35 1-putts. Obviously, in order to birdie, generally it requires a 1 putt, something according to the stats, Drossner has a lot of difficulty doing. The stats do not lie. Drossner is clearly atrocious with the flat stick and needs to do something about it quickly if he has any hope of regaining the title. Sources have reported that Drossner has done very little to work on his putting during the off-season. Drossner has apparently refused to purchase a new putter, which would seem to be the most logical first step in trying to correct this serious problem. It remains to be seen if Drossner will take any action to correct this problem.  Another stat working against Mr. Drossner's chances of winning the title is the fact that over 6 rounds at the Barefoot Fazio and Barefoot Love courses (as well as the two rounds at Barefoot Norman and Barefoot Dye) Drossner has NEVER birdied. Drossner is the only member of the foursome who has never birdied any of these courses. When informed of this statistic this weekend, Drossner was amazed that it was true, yet downplayed its significance. However, just as with trends in other sports (i.e. Tampa Bay has never won when the temperature was less than 32 degrees, Donovan McNabb can't win an NFC Championship game, etc.) it is a statistic that must be taken into account. Drossner clearly has a mental obstacle to overcome if he intends to compete for the title, since two of the rounds will be at the Barefoot Courses.  Finally, Drossner will also be dealing with the birth of his first child, and will likely be distracted and unable to practice in the month and a half leading up to this year's tournament. With so much going against Drossner, many are amazed that his odds are as low as they are.
 
Paul Rovner
Opening Line:  65-1
Current Line:   50-1
 
The 2002 Co-Champion's odds have decreased slightly since they opened at 65-1.  There appears to be a newfound energy and commitment from Rovner this year, as he is making strides to regain the title.  Once again, Rovner is reportedly taking lessons to make his swing more consistent and give him more chances to birdie.  Rovner maintains that this year he is actually listening to his teachers and is trying to follow their advice.  It was reported that several weekends ago, while on a weekend vacation at the New Jersey Shore, Rovner demonstrated his newfound dedication by hitting 600 balls at a driving range. While admirable, it is widely agreed among the members of the MBBCGA that the driving range provides very little in the way of preparation for the conditions and pressure of the Birdie Championship.  Rovner himself admits that his work on the range is simply a step in the right direction in his efforts to regain the title and often refers to himself as the best Driving Range Player in the MBBC.  Rovner has changed his grip and it appeared, at least this weekend, that Rovner is more consistent off the tee.  This will certainly increase Rovner's chances to birdie, as, in years past, he has quickly eliminated any chance of birdie on many holes with a horrible tee shot.  Many believe that Rovner is the player who most benefits from the reduction in the number of rounds being played in this year's tournament.  With fewer rounds, it is naturally expected that a lower birdie total will win the tournament. Rovner has never fired more than 4 birdies in one year. This year, such a total may just win the title. Rovner has shown an ability to be explosive and score birdies in bunches in year's past, most notably in 2001 during the opening round at The Witch when he fired two birdies for his only two birdie round of his MBBC career. As is always the case, if Rovner can get out to an early lead, he puts serious pressure on the other competitors. This will be especially true this year, as with fewer rounds, the players will have fewer opportunities to catch Rovner. If Rovner is able to take an early lead, he must build on that lead in order to fight off any challenges from his competitors.  Momentum is huge in the MBBC, and it is essential for Rovner to grab the early mo and hold onto it.


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