From: Scott Woods [nittanylion96@hotmail.com]

Sent: Monday, May 14, 2012 12:40 AM

To: Dan Hoelke; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner; Scott

Subject: 2012 MBBC Odds

The 16th Annual Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship is now only a few days away.  While the excitement for the 2012 event is at an all time high, preparation by the four players has been inconsistent, at best.  The tournament will return to mid-May, when temperatures in Myrtle Beach are expected to be much more comfortable after last years blistering heat.  The schedule features courses that the players will all be familiar with.  It features a good mixture of difficult and less difficult courses, as well as a course that has been played twice, but has yet to be birdied by the foursome, Crow Creek, the site of the final round of the tournament.  For the second year in a row, Scott Woods will drive to Myrtle Beach by way of the Outer Banks.  The remainder of the players will fly into Myrtle Beach International Airport, a change from last year, when they agreed to fly into Wilmington International Airport.  The other major change is the accomodations, as the MBBCGA agreed to move from the Barefoot Condos to the Myrtlewood Condos, which will be much closer to Broadway By the Beach.  For the first time in many years, there have not been the usual predictions of a birdie barrage, but confidence remains high among all of the players, and the oddsmakers are equally confident of another exciting MBBC.  Without further ado, here are the odds and prop bets as established by the Las Vegas Flamingo Hotel and Casino for the 2012 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship. 

Odds to Win:

Scott Woods
Opening Line:  2-1
Closing Line:  6-5

In a somewhat surprising development, the oddsmakers have established Scott Woods as the favorite to capture the 2012 title.  It would appear that Woods has been named the favorite by default and not necessarily because of his performance in warm-up rounds in the weeks and months leading up to the tournament.  Quite simply, the other players have shown very little in recent warm-up rounds.  That's not to say that Woods' warm-up rounds have been anything special.  Woods has struggled with different aspects of his game during his warm-up rounds, but has generally been able to record birdies on a consistent basis; something none of the other players has been able to do.  Woods has established a reputation as the "grinder" of the MBBC.  He is not as explosive as some of the other members of the foursome, but he finds a birdie here and there and usually puts himself in contention.  Simply put, the oddsmakers fully expect Woods to put in his usual workmanlike effort and scratch out 4 or 5 birdies, and there's a very good chance 4 or 5 birdies will be enough to capture the title. 

Dan Hoelke
Opening Line:  7-2
Closing Line:   3-2

In yet another surprising development, Stormin' Dan Hoelke has been moved up to the second favorite to win the MBBC.  It's unclear how the oddsmakers came to this conclusion, since Hoelke has played only 27 holes since the 2011 MBBC.  Hoelke last played about a week ago.  He reportedly played fairly well, despite continuing to struggle off the tee.  He had a few legitimate birdie opportunities, which he failed to convert, but he was able to drain a lengthy putt for birdie to offset those misses.  The oddsmakers have clearly put a lot of stock in Hoelke's performance last year when he fired 4 birdies in the first 4 rounds before collapsing down the stretch.  This year seems to set up well for Hoelke to make a run at the title;  the schedule features familiar courses where Hoelke has scored well in the past.  Several of the courses are also fairly short, which may allow Hoelke to leave the club he seems to struggle with the most, his driver, in the bag.  The other major factor, the weather, which played a big role in Hoelke's collapse last year, should certainly be favorable as temperatures are unlikely to be any higher then the mid-80's.  While not considered a "darkhorse" this year, Hoelke has to be considered a "breakout" candidate, meaning the oddsmakers believe he has the potential to get on a roll and post a big number, especially if he gets off to a good start, like he did last year.     

Eric Drossner
Opening Line:  3-2
Closing Line:   2-1

In what will probably be considered the most surprising and controversial development, Eric Drossner has not only been removed as the favorite, but has been dropped all the way to third favorite.  The oddsmakers were clearly concerned about Drossner's performance in the Champions' Challenge last month, but gave the 5-time defending champion the benefit of the doubt in making him the opening line favorite.  They obviously wanted to see more from him, and he simply did not respond.  Drossner has played only one more round since the Champions' Challenge and, by all accounts, did did not look much better then he did in the Champions' Challenge.  He struggled off the tee and did not have any legitimate birdie opportunities.  The oddsmakers doubts about Drossner this year seem to contradict his history.  Drossner has been a bit of a "mechanic" over the last 6 years; winning 5 times, scoring 32 birdies (9 more than the secondmost over that span, 23 by Woods), never making less then 4 birdies in a single MBBC, and firing a record setting 9 birdies in 2009.  

Paul Rovner
Opening Line:  12-1
Closing Line:   10-1

The oddsmakers have admittedly struggled with Rovner's odds this year.  Rovner has struggled mightily the last several years and has annually been considered an a non-factor in the title chase.  However, there are several developments, which suggest that Rovner does have a legitimate shot of contending.  Rovner appears to have had a bit of a resurgence this year.  His play in the Champions' Challenge was nothing short of impressive as he recorded 2 birdies and a mulligan birdie.  Rovner also played 3 more times last weekend in the Bahamas and is the most prepared of the foursome.  While a birdie or two in the Bahamas likely would have made his odds even more favorable, Rovner reportedly played very well, but still failed to mark.  Rovner's improved play combined with the lackluster efforts of the other 3 players has forced bettors to take a second look at him.  If nothing else, Rovner is the most prepared of the foursome.  Rovner is clearly not lacking in confidence, as he was recently quoted as saying that he's the most confident that he's ever been.  With birdies expected to be at a premium, the oddsmakers clearly believe Rovner has a decent shot of winning.  Obviously, the biggest factor against Rovner remains his putting.  His struggles with the flat stick have been well documented.  Prior to the Champions' Challenge, Rovner decided to start using an old-fashioned putter, a decision heavily criticized by at least one member of the MBBCGA.  Despite his bravado, Rovner is apparently not entirely confident in his new putter, as he bought a new putter just 1 week before the start of the MBBC, a putter that he presumably will not use until the first hole of the opening round on King's North.  Rovner's putting will certainly be a key to his chances of contending.

Over/Under - Hole on which the first birdie will be made:
10.5

Another sign that the oddsmakers have their doubts about the group's preparation this year.  This line seems to contradict the trends, as, on average, the group takes slightly less than 8 holes to birdie.  However, there are some concerns about the group's lack of familiarty with the opening round course, King's North, with some suggesting that King's North has a good chance of breaking the group's consecutive courses birdied streak.  There has been less "scouting" of the course this year then there was for Cape Fear last year.  The oddsmakers believe that with the exception of the relatively short Par 5 first hole, there are not a whole lot of birdie opportunities on the King's North front nine and that it may not be until the back nine that the group makes its mark, if at all...

Over/Under - Hole on which each player will make their first birdie:

Dan Hoelke -      23.5

Eric Drossner -    24.5

Scott Woods -     32.5

Paul Rovner -      45.5

The oddsmakers are quite sure that each player is looking at their over under and saying something to the effect of, "there's no way it's going to take me that long to birdie."  However, the oddsmakers must warn prospective bettors that these over/unders are heavily based on the stats accumulated over the last 11 years, and for the first time in odds history, the oddsmakers will actually explain the basis for the established lines.  Using the stats since 2001, the oddsmakers determiend the average hole on which each player made thier first birdie (Dan- 24.7, Droz- 25.0, Scott- 39.0, Paul 44.5) (Determining Paul's average was complicated by the fact that he failed to birdie in 2008, but the oddsmakers gave him a 144 for that year for the purpose of determining his average).  The oddsmakers then decided to throw out each player's lowest and highest numbers and determined adjusted averages (Dan- 19.4, Droz- 22.4, Scott- 36.3, Paul- 38.0).  The oddsmakers then determined the lines based on each player's actual and adjusted averages.  In all likelihood at least 1 player will fire a birdie well below their total, but the problem is determining which of those players it will be.  The oddsmakers are intrigued in seeing how this bet plays out...

Over/Under - Hole by which all 4 players will have made a birdie:

73.5

In case there is any confusion, this is the total number of holes that will be played before the last player finally makes his first birdie.  Once again, this line is a pure reflection of the stats from the last 11 years (taking out 2007 when Hoelke did not play).  The average number of holes it took for all players to birdie was 74.7.  (Once again, this average was calculated by giving the group 144 in the year that Paul failed to birdie).  The average was adjusted by tossing out the highest total (144) and the lowest total (27 in 2001). The result was 72.0, and the oddsmakers have set the line accordingly.

Over/Under - Lost Balls by the group:

58.5

The oddsmakers are pushing for the tracking of a new stat this year, lost balls, as they offer this prop bet for the first time.  The oddsmakers had no idea how high or low to set this line, and have taken a stab in the dark in setting it.  For the purpose of this bet only, there does need to be some clarification of what defines a "lost" ball.  Any ball that goes out of bounds or into a water hazard whether found by Paul or Scott and his long pants is deemed "lost" and counts toward this over/under.  I guess I need to avoid my Tin Cup impression that I seem to do once or twice a year in order to keep my lost ball total reasonable. 

Will Dan Hoelke Birdie Hole #4 or Hole #11 of ANY course?

Yes      +250

No       -175

In a strange coincidence, all of Hoelke's birdies in the 2011 MBBC were on the 4th or 11th holes of various courses.  Hoelke, a big believer in luck, fate, karma, trends, etc. seems to believe that the 4th and 11th holes are good luck for him.  Obviously, those betting "yes" in this prop do have the bonus of the 4th hole at Barefoot Love.

Over/Under - Age of the first player to birdie:

37.5

For those bettors who might be in a bit of a daze and can't figure this one out, a pick of "over" gets you Woods and Hoelke who are both 38 years old, and a pick of "under" gets you Drossner and Rovner, who are 37 and will not turn 38 until later in the year. 

Over/Under for each player's birdie total:

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Scott Woods     4.5 (3)     5.5 (6)      4.5 (3)     3.5 (4)     5.5 (5)      3.5 (2)    4.5 (4)      3.5 (2)     3.5 (4)      5.5 (6)       4.5

Dan Hoelke      8.5 (3)     7.5 (4)      5.5 (6)     6.5 (8)     8.5 (7)       N/A        6.5 (4)      5.5 (4)     5.5 (3)      5.5 (4)       4.5

Eric Drossner   2.5 (4)      5.5 (2)      2.5 (4)     3.5 (2)     2.5 (4)      2.5 (4)    3.5 (4)      3.5 (9)     5.5 (4)      6.5 (7)       4.5

Paul Rovner     3.5 (4)      3.5 (1)      1.0 (2)     1.5 (3)     3.5 (3)      1.5 (2)    2.5 (0)      0.5 (1)     1.5 (2)      2.5 (1)       1.5

For the first time ever, 3 players have been given the same over/under, demonstrating just how difficult it is for the oddsmakers to differentiate between Woods, Hoelke, and Drossner, and also demonstrating just how close the oddsmakers believe this MBBC is going to be.  Perhaps an important stat to consider before placing a bet, in the 3 years the MBBC has been played in the spring, NO player has made more than 4 birdies.  

Over/under for total birdies by the foursome:

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*       2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
18.5 (13)   12.5 (15)   14.5 (17)  19.5 (19)  8.5 (8)      16.5 (12)  15.5 (16)   14.5 (13)   16.5 (18)   14.5

This year's MBBC is looking an awful lot like the 2008 and 2010 MBBC's.  The 2008 event was the first full-field MBBC played in the spring  (It was actually played in early June because Paul was selling his house).  With the exception of Dan, who was simply happy to be back from his injury, there were very few warm-up rounds played prior to the 2008 MBBC.  I'm sure there were the annual predictions of a birdie barrage, but it never came.  In fact, Day 2 of the 2008 MBBC featured 0 birdies (Leopard's Chase and Sandpiper Bay) which was in fact the last time that the group failed to birdie a course.  The total for the group would have only been 10 if not for the final hole birdies by Droz (to win the title) and Dan (to tie Scott and Droz with 4).  Paul was in the midst of his record-setting birdie drought and did not birdie on the trip.  2010 was also played in late May.  With the exception of Droz, there were few warm-up rounds played.  I'm quite sure there were numerous predictions of a birdie barrage especially after Droz fired 9 birdies the year before.  The barrage did not come that year either, as the group managed only 13 birdies.  This year is playing out very similarly, and many will likely suggest that the line should be a tad lower... However, despite the group's overall lack of preparation, the oddsmakers do believe the course lineup sets up well for more birdies than might be expected.