There have been numerous developments since the end of the 2006 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship, when the players walked off the 18th green at the Norman Course at Barefoot Resorts and Dan Hoelke had polished off his third consecutive championship in dominating fashion.  Since then, due to poor ticket sales, declining advertising sales, and most importantly, due to player complaints regarding excessive heat and scheduling conflicts, the MBBCGA made a drastic move and agreed to move the 2007 MBBC to the end of May.  This marked the second time in MBBC history that the tournament had to be moved, but the first time that it's been moved to late spring.  It is believed that the move to late spring/early summer will be a permanent one as the tournament will be able to avoid the annual dreaded hurricane watch that preceded each of the previous championships.  Organizers also felt that the so-called 6th Major would earn greater revenue earlier in the season. rather than at the end of season, when fans grow tired of golf and prepare for pro and college football season. Members of the MBBCGA were extremely excited about the move to spring.

 

However, the 2007 MBBC took a dramatic turn when 3-time defending champion Stormin' Dan Hoelke suffered a horrific knee injury while participating in a flag football game just a few weeks before the tournament.  What was originally hoped to only be a minor injury, turned out to be a devasting injury for Hoelke, which required immediate surgery by the Pittsburgh Penguins team doctor.  Hoelke is recovering well and is considering attending the tournament.  Early word is that Hoelke expects to be ready for the 2008 MBBC.  After the announcement of Hoelke's injury, the remaining players discussed numerous options including cancelling or rescheduling the tournament.  Ultimately, the player agreed that the tournament should go on.  Former champion Scott Woods summed up te players' feelings best, "Certainly, we wish that Dan could play, especially since he is the defending champion, and our thoughts and prayers go out to him for a speedy recovery.  After much debate, the players association unanimously agreed that the tournament should go on."  Eric Drossner had a much different response, stating, "Obviously, this increases my chances of winning."  The 2007 MBBC will certainly be greatly diminished by Hoelke's absence.  Much like a PGA Tour tournament without Tiger Woods, the MBBC will not be the same without Hoelke. 

 

While the tournament will go on, the players association has decided that it will not play Hoelke's selection for the opening round, Sandpiper Bay, and they will not play any new venues.  Therefore, all of the courses on the schedule will be familiar to the players.  The opening round will be hald at the site of the first round ever played in Myrtle Beach, Litchfield Country Club.  Remaining rounds will be played in the following order: Barefoot Love (likely to be played twice due to maintenance issues), Tidewater, Grande Dunes, Crow Creek, Glen Dornoch and Wachesaw East.  The players' familiarity could result in a plethora of birdies, but there are many other factors that play a great role in establishing the odds on this event.  So, despite all of the above, Sportsbook.com is pleased to present the odds for the 2007 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship:

Odds to Win the Championship

 

Scott Woods:  1:2

 

With his archrival, Dan Hoelke, out of the picture, this appears to be Woods' tournament to lose.  Woods has been frustrated by Hoelke's dominance over the past three years.  With Hoelke unable to play, Woods has been established as the betting favorite.  The biggest concern for Woods is the fact that he has not even touched his golf clubs since the close of the 2006 MBBC.  Woods has not played a round and has not even set foot on a driving range.  He is clearly not at all prepared for the tournament.  Woods had several opportunities earlier in the spring to play practice rounds but declined invitations to play with a co-worker.  Woods' weekends have largely been taken up by his new roommate.  Previously, as the only bachelor of the foursome, it was thought that Woods had a distinct advantage in that he had the freedom to practice and prepare for the MBBC.  That advantage is now gone since Woods has found love.  However, Woods played solidly last year in scoring 5 birdies despite minimal preparation.  Woods is well known for his ability to score well despite a lack of preparation.  In fact, on several occassions Woods has made multiple birdies in the first round of a season.  The lack of preparation is likely to be a major storyline in this year's tournament, but Woods is clearly the best player when none are prepared to play.  Woods is a solid enough player that he is able to string together shots to give himself birdie opportunities and there is no player better at converting those opportunities.  With birdies likely at a premium, Woods may have just enough to win.

 

Eric Drossner  7:5

 

For reasons not entirely clear, Eric Drossner has been moved to the second favorite on the board. Drossner is only slightly more prepared than Woods for the MBBC... that is to say that Drossner has gone to the driving range on at least one occassion.  Drossner was clearly encouraged by his final round performance in 2006 when he caught fire and posted 3 birdies.  While other players have been sympathetic with regard to Hoelke's unfortunate accident, Drossner has been more selfish and outspoken in the fact that his chances of winning have greatly increased.  Drossner has been criticized in the past for playing with a general lack of passion and desire.  While previously talking a big game, Drossner has failed to live up to expectations for a variety of reasons.  It would appear that Drossner has drawn inpiration from Hoelke's injury, and, perhaps, it will be enough motivation to push him to victory.  In his own best interest, however, Drossner's camp will likely "spin" Drossner's reaction so as to suggest that Drossner is playing for his friend Hoelke rather than taking advantage of the situation.  The bootm line is that Drossner has regained his traditional "darkhorse" status.  No one, probably not even Drossner, knows what to expect from him.  We could see the player who made only 1 birdie through the first 7 rounds of the 2006 MBBC, or the player who made 3 birdies in the final round. 

 

Paul Rovner  2:1

 

Paul Rovner is the most prepared for the tournament, but that's not saying much.  Rovner is the only one among the three players who has actually played a practice round.  The report from that round was not particularly encouraging.  The lack of preparation hurts Rovner the most of any of the players.  Rovner is known for his disciplined practice regimen, and it is this practice regimen that has lead to some dramatic improvement in Rovner's game and increased birdie opportunities.  There are concerns that the lack of practice will cause Rovner to revert back to his old game, which was not much to see. This championship is likely hinge greatly upon which player can best deal with the frustration of not playing well.  Previously, Rovner was known for his "just hapy to be here" attitude.  However, as his game has improved, Rovner has shown tendency to become more and more frustrated when is his not playing well.  If Rovner is unable to handle his frustration, it could be a long tournament for him.  Perhaps a sign of Rovner's attitude going into the tournament was his response to suggestions regarding the site of the opening round.  Rovner flat out rejected Man 'O War as a possible choice pointing out that he was concerned about the amount of water on the course.  None of the other players expressed any concerns about the amount of water, so it's clear that Rovner has very little confidence heading into the championship.  Rovner also does not benefit at all from the fact that he has played all of the courses on this year's schedule at least once as he is never able to remember the holes of any courses he's played in the past.  Rovner generally only remembers courses based on any freebies that might have been given away, the attractiveness of the cart girls, or whether or not the carts have coolers of ice on the sides.

 

Dan Hoelke  8:1

 

Many people may be surprised to still see Hoelke listed on the board with odds to win, after the announcement that he would be unable to play.  However, there is still a chance that Hoelke can win, and that chance may be better than most would think.  MBBC rules provide that the defending champion must be beaten and that, in the event of a tie, the defending champion shall retain his title.  Basically, if all other players fail to make a single birdie, Hoelke will retain his title, possibly without even showing up at the tournament.  Given the lack of preparation by all players, there is a legitimate chance that there will not be any birdies.

 

 

Crow Creek             1:3

Barefoot Love (PM)  1:2

Barefoot Love (AM)  1:1

Glen Dornoch          2:1

Grande Dunes         2:1

Wachesaw East       4:1

Litchfield C.C.          5:1

Tidewater               7:1

 

Crow Creek has somewhat surprisingly been established as the favorite for the course to produce the most birdies.  This despite the fact that none of the players were able to birdie Crow Creek when it was played in 2002.  Crow Creek is fairly short and wide-open course, which should present the players with the most birdie opportunities.  Barefoot Love has been established as the second and third favorite with the afternoon round established as the more likely of the two rounds to produce more birdies.  The morning of Day 2 is normally a rough morning for the players, so oddsmakers feel that the players have a better chance of making birdies the second time around.  Glen Dornoch is an interesting pick, Scott Woods once made back-to-back birdies there.  Litchfiled Country Club and Tidewater are expected to the toughest courses on the schedule. 

 

 

Eric Drossner      1:1

Scott Woods     3:2

Paul Rovner       7:1

 

Despite the fact that Drossner is the second favorite to win the tournament, he has been established as the favorite to be the first player to birdie.  Based on the fact that some doubt whether or not Rovner will even be able to make a single birdie, it is not surprising that he is considered the least likely to be the first to birdie.

 

 

                             '02        '03        '04        '05        '06       '07

 

Eric Drossner         2.5 (4)   5.5 (2)   2.5 (4)   3.5 (2)   2.5 (4)   2.5

Paul Rovner          3.5 (4)   3.5 (1)    1.0 (2)   1.5 (3)  3.5 (3)    1.5

Scott Woods        4.5 (3)   5.5 (6)    4.5 (3)   3.5 (4)  5.5 (5)    3.5

 

Some interesting trends have developed in the 5 years that over/under totals have been set.  Eric Drossner has scored 4 and 2 birdies in alternating years.  For those that believe in trends, he is on track to fire only 2 birdies this year, which is why his line is only at 2.5.  Scott Woods has gone over and under his total in alternate years and if the trend holds true, he will go over his total of 3.5.  Rovner has cored 3 birdies in his last two years, but oddsmakers are not expecting much from him.

 

 

   2003                2004                 2005                2006                   2007

  18.5 (13)         12.5 (15)           14.5 (17)          19.5 (19)               8.5

 

Obviously the over/under had to be adjusted based on the fact that Hoelke is not playing.  An analysis of past years reveals that the remaining players scored 11, 9, 9, 9, and 12 birdies in the past 5 years.  Oddsmakers expect a slight slip in the number of birdies, but have kept it near 9.

 

 

 

 

Gentlemen, that is all that I've got.  It's unlikely that I will have any predictions for this year, but I could change my mind.  Quite honestly, the MBBC has snuck up on me.  Looking forward to it.  Danny, I still say you go.  See you guys in Philly on Sunday morning.