From: Scott Woods
[nittanylion96@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, May 21, 2010 12:22
AM
To: Dan Hoelke; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner; Scott
Woods
Subject: MBBC XIV Odds
It's only been nine months since the
2009 MBBC came to its anti-climatic close, but it seems like it's been even
longer than that. A winter featuring record snowfall in the northeast left
players longing for the 2010 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship. First, a
look back at the 2009 tournament. The 2009 MBBC could best be described as
the Eric Drossner show. Drossner birdied early (striking 3 times in the
opening round at Wicked Stick), he birdied late (marking in the final round at
The Dunes Club) and he birdied often, setting a record total of 9 birdies.
Drossner was never really challenged in capturing his third consecutive
title. Dan Hoelke struggled in his second year since his horrific knee
injury and was disappointed with his final total of 4. Scott Woods
struggled even more and finished with a personal all-time low of only 2
birdies. Paul Rovner was happy to get the anchor from around his neck,
only to find himself with a new one, as he was only able to manage 1 birdie,
breaking a record-setting draught, but he has started a new one as his
birdieless streak heading in 2010 nears 100 holes.
And so, we turn
our attention to the 14th installment of the MBBC. The tournament returns
to its rightful place in late May/early June. The most recent look at the
weather forecast shows absolutely perfect conditions for making birdies with
temperatures in the upper 70's and low 80's with very little threat of
rain. Once again, the schedule appears to set up well for birdies.
The 2010 MBBC will open at the champion's selection, Myrtlewood.
Myrtlewood is an absolute unknown to the players. However, this is simlar
to last year when the tournament opened at John Daly's Wicked Stick. Many
players voiced their concerns about playing Wicked Stick, but there was
very little complaining after the group fired four birdies in that round.
After what is expected to be a long night out, the foursome will head to
Barefoot on Day 2 for 2 rounds at the Fazio Course. This will be the
second time that the players have played the Fazio Course twice in one day (it
was also done in 2008 when the Love course was undergoing
maintenance.) An interesting note about the Fazio Course - it has been
birdied by at least one member of the foursome every time that it's been played
with the exception of 2000. The leaderboard should certainly start to take
shape after those two rounds. After what is likely to be a very good
night's sleep, Day 3 will open at Farmstead. Farmstead has been played
once before and was not birdied. It is generally remembered as a fairly
difficult course, which includes a Par 6. In the afternoon, the players
will turn to the second most birdied course, Grande Dunes. Grande Dunes
has also been birdied by a member of the foursome every time it's been
played with the exception of 2000. There are some maintenance concerns,
which could have an effect on birdie totals. Day 4 of the 2010 MBBC has
the potential to be one of the most exciting days in MBBC history. The
players will play their favorite course, Barefoot Love, twice.
Barefoot Love has been the most birdied course by the foursome over the years,
which is amazing considering the fact that Eric Drossner has NEVER birdied the
Love course. If the tournament is still in doubt heading into day 4, look
for fireworks at Barefoot Love. The final round should see the players
return to Grande Dunes. In all, the foursome is scheduled to play the
three most birdied courses a total of 6 times, which should set
the stage for some high birdie totals.
There are several storylines
to follow in 2010... Can three-time defending champion Eric Drossner
continue his mastery of the group and capture his fourth consecutive title, or
will someone else step into the spotlight? Can Drossner possibly live up
to the expectations raised by his dominating performance last year? Can
Stormin' Dan Hoelke finally complete his comeback from his career threatening
knee injury? Are Scott Woods' days of contending over, or can he
summon up some magic of old and make a run at his first title since 2003?
And which Paul Rovner will show up in 2010 - the Rovner from 2005 and 2006 who
appeared on the verge of challenging for a title or the Rovner of 2007-2009, who
appeared to have no chance to make a birdie?
And so it is time to
reveal the closing odds, lines and prop bets for the 2010 Myrtle Beach Birdie
Championship as established by the oddsmakers at the New York New York Hotel and
Casino in Las Vegas Nevada. (Please remember that wagering on sports is
not permitted outside the state of Nevada.):
Eric
Drossner
Opening Line - 1:1
Current
Line - 1:2
Eric Drossner has been established as a HEAVY
favorite to capture his fourth straight title. Drossner's performance last
year speaks for itself. He converted nearly every legitimate birdie
opportunity he had, and seemed to have control of the tournament from the
start. He is, without a doubt, the most prepared of the foursome,
having played several times, including most recently on Wednesday. There
have been reports of a handful of birdies. Drossner seems to have finally
figured out how to properly prepare for an MBBC. He does not seem to
concern himself with making birdies, instead focusing on different aspects of
his game, much like Tiger Woods in his prime. There is
little doubt that this is Drossner's tournament to lose. Of note, Drossner
prefers to be the darkhorse entering a tournament, so it remains to be seen how
he handles being the heavy favorite.
Dan
Hoelke
Opening Line - 3:2
Current
Line - 3:1
Stormin' Dan Hoelke remains the second favorite among
bettors despite a shakey performance last year. Hoelke is attempting a
different strategy this year... normally he is the most prepared for the
MBBC. However, this year, he has largely left the clubs in his
garage. Bettors are still attracted by Hoelke's potential. Hoelke
was the most dominating player in the MBBC in the early-2000's and was the
favorite to win the title every year. However, the knee injury in
2007 seems to have derailed Hoelke's confidence. Hoelke battled his swing
last year as he struggled to make four birdies. Many still believe
that Hoelke is always just a shot away from getting everything clicking and
putting on another dominating performance. This is the forst year since
2002 (other than the year Hoelke was out with an injury) that he is not at least
the Co-Favorite. There is a chance that Hoelke will take this as an insult
and turn in a dominating performance.
Scott
Woods
Opening Line - 8:1
Current
Line - 25:1
The once proud champion's line opened at a
respectable 8:1. However, Woods has not even looked at his golf clubs
since returning from the 2009 MBBC. They have remained in his basement,
and will continue to be there, until he puts them in his travel bag for the flat
to Myrtle. Woods has turned down a few opportunities to play, and has not
even bothered to go the range. His first swing of the year will be on the
tee at Myrtlewood. Simply put, Woods is completely unprepard for the 2010
MBBC, and he is not expected to contend. Woods is well known
for making birides after not playing for months. But it seems
unlikely that Woods will be able to make enough birdies t keep up with Drossner
and Hoelke. If the winning total is 4 or 5 birdies, Woods has a puncher's
chance. If the scores are any higher, Woods will likely be looking to
2011.
Paul Rovner
Opening Line -
75:1
Current Line - 50:1
Rovner was
offended at his opening line of 75:1. He was highly insulted at the
general consensus that he has absolutely no chance of winning. Rovner has
quietly gone about preparing to prove the naysayers wrong. He has played a
few rounds, although he failed to make any birdies. Rovner clearly needs
to get over the mental block that comes with not making birdies. He seems
to get into deep funks when he is struggling and forgets the MBBC motto, "Score
Doesn't Matter." As is amost always the case, Rovner must get off to a
good start. An early birdie could do wonders for his game, and, more
importantly, could put pressure on the rest of the
players.
First Player to
Birdie
Eric Drossner - 1:5
Dan
Hoelke - 2:1
Scott Woods
- 10:1
Paul Rovner -
15:1
Despite the fact that Drossner has only been the first to
birdie twice in the last eleven years, he is the OVERWHELMING favorite to strike
first this year. Hoelke seems to be good value at 2:1. The
oddsmakers seem to have little faith that Woods or Rovner will be the first to
mark. However, both are dangerous enough, especially on Par 3's, to
consider a flyer. In fact, considering Rovners odds to win are as high as
they are, it seems strange that his odds to be the first to birdie are as low as
they are. This may be one of those situations where the oddsmakers know
something that the betting public does not. Definitely a line to keep an
eye on...
Over/Under - Hole on which the first
birdie will be made
6.5
A new odd for this
year. The oddsmakers reviewed the stats for the last 10 years and
discovered that the average for the first hole birdied is 8.3. Obviously,
the fastest birdie was Drossner's mark on the first hole in 2004. However,
it generally does not take long for the foursome to birdie as other marks have
come on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th hole of the tournament. In fact
the average of 8.3 is largely skewed by 2006, when it took 24 holes for the
group to finally make a birdie. Surprisingly, that is the only time, it
took more that 14 holes for the group to strike. The easy money would seem
to be on the over, but the under is definitely worth a second
look.
Will the foursome birdie every round
played?
YES -
+250
NO - -400
Another interesting prop bet that
has never previously been offered. The foursome has only managed this feat
twice since 1999, when stats first started being kept. It was done in
2004, but not doen again until 2009, when Drossner nearly accomplished the feat
all by himself. So, the initial reaction would be a resounding yes, but
the stats would disagree...
Course with the most birdies
by the foursome
Barefoot Love (PM)
-
1:1
Barefoot Love (AM)
-
3:2
Barefoot Fazio (AM)
-
4:1
Barefoot Fazio (PM)
-
5:1
Grande Dunes (Monday)
5:1
Myrtlewood -
8:1
Grande Dunes (Wednesday)- 10:1
Farmstead
- 15:1
Obviously,
the oddsmakers believe that familiarity will yield more birdies. The
oddsmakers believe that the Fazio rounds are less likely to yield birdies
because it will be the day after a long night. While Hoelke claims to like
playing hungover, the rest of the group is probably not so great hungover.
Wednesday's round at Grande Dunes should also come after a long night of
drinking. Farmstead is expected to be fairly difficult (even after a good
night's sleep) and the oddsmakers don't really know what to make of
Myrtlewood.
Over/Under for each player's birdie
total:
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009
2010
Eric
Drossner 2.5
(4) 5.5 (2) 2.5
(4) 3.5 (2) 2.5
(4) 2.5 (4) 3.5
(4) 3.5 (9) 5.5
Dan
Hoelke
8.5 (3) 7.5 (4) 5.5
(6) 6.5 (8) 8.5
(7)
N/A 6.5
(4) 5.5 (4) 5.5
Scott
Woods 4.5
(3) 5.5 (6) 4.5
(3) 3.5 (4) 5.5
(5) 3.5 (2) 4.5
(4) 3.5 (2) 3.5
Paul
Rovner 3.5
(4) 3.5 (1) 1.0
(2) 1.5 (3) 3.5
(3) 1.5 (2) 2.5
(0) 0.5 (1)
1.5
Always one of the favorite lines. Clearly, the oddsmakers
feel that Drossner's record-setting total of nine last year was a statistical
abberation, as they have set his over/under at just 5.5. The oddsmakers
seem to think that despite his lack of warm-up rounds, the fact that the
Barefoot Love, Fazio and Grande Dunes will be played 6 times, could push Dan
Hoelke's total higher then expected. The oddsmakers expect Woods to
improve on last year's performance, and Paul Rovners over/under of 1.5 is VERY
intriguing.
Over/Under for total birdies by the
foursome
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
18.5 (13) 12.5
(15) 14.5 (17) 19.5
(19) 8.5 (8) 16.5
(12) 15.5
(16) 14.5
The oddsmakers have gone
back and forth before settling on the over/under of 14.5. The general
consensus is that this will be a down year for birdies because of the overall
lack of preparation. However, as stated early, conditions will be prime
for birdie making, and the players will be VERY familiar with the courses that
are going to be played. Therefore, the oddsmakers have set this years
total a little higher than many might have expected. It should be pointed
out that the average total for the 6 years that this line has been set (taking
out 2007) is 15.3. Cerainly, not everyone has prepared the same for every
tournament.
The New Busy think 9 to 5 is a cute idea. Combine multiple calendars with
Hotmail. Get busy.