The greatest, most intense and pressure-packed sporting event
known to man is scheduled to begin on Friday, September 17, 2004. Many may
think I am referring to the clash between the United States and Europe in the
Ryder Cup, but the prestige of The Ryder Cup pales in comparison to the Myrtle
Beach Birdie Championship. There are reports that NBC executives were
extremely angry when it was announced that the 2004 Myrtle Beach Birdie
Championship was being moved to the same weekend as The Ryder Cup because of
the effect it will have on ratings for NBC's coverage of The Ryder Cup.
The 5 week delay for MBBC VIII has brought even greater
anticipation and intensity for the event then is normally seen. More
importantly, the 5 week delay has provided extra time for the betting public
to place wagers on any number of propositions for the event. Even with the
Championship now set to begin, there are many questions left unanswered, which
have proven to be extremely frustating for bettors. Most prominent among
those questions are the venues that the players will be playing in this year's
event. The original schedule issued by the MBBCGA included: Wild
Wing Woodstork, Farmstead, Grande Dunes, International World Tour, Barefoot
Love and Fazio and The Surf Club. However, within the last week the
MBBCGA was made aware of maintenance that was being done at a few of the
venues, which has forced the committee to consider last mintue changes of
venue. It would appear that The Surf Club, an unknown course to the
players, which was scheduled to host the climactic final round, will likely
have to be replaced. The MBBCGA issued a stern staement condenming The
Surf Club's decision to conduct maintenance less than a week before the MBBC,
especially in light of the fact that the course had been granted the extremem
honor of hosting the final round. The MBBCGA's statement stopped short of
eliminating The Surf Club from future consideration as an MBBC host. Of
more concern to the players, and the bettors, is the effect of the maintenance
being done at Grande Dunes and Barefoot Fazio. It appears likely that Barefoot
Fazio will be replaced by Barefoot Norman, but the players are somewhat
disappointed in the break from tradition, which could have an affect on
birdies. The biggest effect on the MBBC may be the maintenance being
done at the players' favorite facility, Grande Dunes. Grande Dunes
representatives have assured the MBBCGA that the maintenance currently being
done will have absolutely no affect on the MBBC, but the MBBCGA is considering
moving the round to another venue. Defending champion Scott Woods issued
the following statement, "The players have discussed the issue and are taking
a wait and see approach to the round at Grande Dunes. We are all hopeful
that the course will be playable as it is our favorite venue, but none of us
want course conditions to decide the championship. Grande Dunes has seen
the most birdies in MBBC history, 6 over the two times it has been played, and
more fireworks were expected this year.
The other major issue for bettors to consider before placing
bets on the MBBC is the threat of inclement weather. An MBBC round has
only been washed out on one previous occassion, when the 2000 opening round at
The Witch was rained out. Other rounds have been delayed briefly by passing
thunderstorms, but the tournament has been blessed with excellent weather over
the years. This year, the forecast does include the possibility of rain
for most of the rounds. The rain at this time of year may not include
thunderstorms, which means the players may have to play in the rain, which
could have a major affect on the tournament. Hoelke and Woods are the only two
players with experience in the rain, both having biridied in a summer warm-up
round earlier this year in Pittsburgh.
Besides these two major issues, there are other individual
player issues that bettors must consider before placing bets, which are
outlined below. The Flamingo Hotel and Casino is proud to present all
odds and bets available for the 2004 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship:
Player Odds to win the
Championship
Dan Hoelke
Opening Line: 7-2
Updated Line: 3-1
Current Line: 2-1
Despite coming into the tournament with the longest birdie-less
streak, the 2001 Champion's line has been set at 2-1, based largely on the
results of his most recent warm-up round when Hoelke scored a 3. Hoelke
remains the most consistent member of the foursome, provides himself with the
most opportunites to birdie, and is the most explosive member of the foursome,
capable of birdying any hole at any time. Hoelke rarely takes himself
out of a birdie possibility with a poor drive, and his accurracy with his
irons makes birdie a legitimate possibility on almost every hole. Hoelke
has been largely criticized in the past for his failures with the putter,
although the putting statistics from last year's tournamnet, suggest that
criticism is unfounded as he led the group in lowest putts per hole for the
tournament. Supporters of Hoelke have suggested that Hoelke has so many
more birdie opportunities that it only seems like he is not a good putter,
because he does not always make the birdie putts. It wiould seem that
Hoelke is the one player in the foursome who most needs to get off to a good
start, with his consecutive hole birdieless streak hanging around his
neck like an anchor. If Holeke is able to break the streak early, there
could be no stopping him.
Scott Woods
Opening Line: 1-1
Updated Line: 3-2
Current Line: 2-1
For the first time in Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship history,
the sportsbook as established c-favorites to win the tournament.
Woods and Hoelke have both been set as 2-1 favorites as oddsmakers are unable
to find a difference in the two players and betting has been equal on both of
them. On paper, Hoelke should be the favorite to win this event every year,
but Woods ignores the statistics and continues to find ways to birdie. Despite
winning last year with 6 birdies to Hoelke's 4 birdies, the match was
virtually even throughout the 9 round event. Woods and Hoelke went back and
forth for the first few rounds before Hoelke went into a drought and Woods was
able to make a at least one lucky putt to seal the title. The oddsmakers
expect nothing different in this year's championship. Most believe that
whichever of these players gets the most breaks will win the championship.
Eric Drossner
Opening Line: 20-1
Updated Line: 27-1
Current Line: 18-1
A new year brings new hope for Eric Drossner and his seemingly
annual quest for the cup. And a new year also brings newfound support
for a player who has now developed a reputation for not being able to come
through when it counts. Despite the horrific putting statistics, his dismal
failures in the past including last year's disappointing performance, and
despite playing only 9 holes over the last 10 weeks, amzingly, there are still
many bettors who have thrown their money behind Drossner. A new year has
brought a new approach for Drossner. The birth of daughter Haley appears
to have brought perspective and balance in Drossner's life as he has recently
been quoted as saying, "In the grand scheme of things, the Championship isn't
really that important. If it happens, it happens, but I have more
important things going on in my life right now. Don't get me wrong, I
would love to win the title and I'll try my best to do it, but it won't ruin
my life if I don't win it." While Drossner has done nothing to prepare for the
2004 MBBC, other then a recent 9 hole warm-up round which did feature 1
birdie, supporters suggest that this "distraction" is exactly what Drossner
needed to make a title run. Seemingly, the birth of his daughter has
taken so much of the pressure Drossner annually put on himself to win.
With less pressure to win, supporters hope that Drossner's putting will
improve and that he can, at least, be a factor in this year's tournament, if
not win outright. Others believe that Drossner's failure to play any
warm-up rounds for the last 10 weeks leaves him completely unprepared for the
MBBC. They suggest that the MBBC cannot be taken lightly by a player who
expects to win. It is also argued that the recent 9 hole warm-up round which
featured a birdie, was a lame attempt to get some work in before the MBBC, and
the birdie is somewhat tainted because it was made at Limekiln.
Supporters of Drossner certainly do not suggest that the birdie at Limekiln is
necessarily a sign of things to come, but believe the birdie gives Drossner
positive momentum heading into the tournament.
Paul Rovner
Opening Line: 65-1
Updated Line: 50-1
Current Line: 45-1
Rovener's closing line is the highest closing line for any
player since Rovner's 2000 closing line of 5,000-1. That year, Rovner
put a scare into the casino when he jumped out to an early lead, and
oddsmakers ever since have been much more careful in establishing the lines,
with 25-1 being the highest closing line over the last two years. Even
in 2002, the year Rovner shared the title with Drossner, oddsmakers felt that
Rovner had a legitimate chance and set his final number at 15-1. At this
point, the oddsmakers can find little reason to justify lowering Rovner's odds
any further. Rovner has openly admitted that he has very little chance
in this year's tournament and that he is directing his attention to winning
the title in 2006. Well known for "playing possum" or "sandbagging" the other
players all maintain that Rovner is still a very dangerous player, who is
still capable of winning the title despite his recent struggles. Rovner only
made 1 birdie in last year's tournament and the warm-up round reports have not
been particularly promising. There is little doubt that Rovner will try his
best and do what he can to stay in contention, but there is significant doubt
as to whether Rovner can, in fact, stay in contention. If Rovner
falls in a hole early and the leaders start to pull away from him, Rovner may
find himself quickly looking ahead to 2005, if not, his reported goal of
2006.
Other Bets:
Course that will yield the most
birdies:
Grande
Dunes
1-1 ***
Barefoot
Love
2-1
Wild
Wing
8-1
Barefoot
Fazio
8-1 ***
Farmstead 12-1
International World Tour 25-1
The Surf
Club
25-1 ***
These odds have been set assuming each of these courses will be
played. A *** indicates that maintenance concerns are present at that
course and that it may be replaced. New odds will not be set if the
course is replaced but bettors will have the option of taking "No action" on
their bet or having the same odds on the replacement course. Grande
Dunes and Barefoot Love are the clear cut favorites to produce the most
birdies. As the opening round course, Wild Wing Woodstork, is a good bet
at 8-1, although weather concerns of rain and wind may reduce the birdie
possibilities. The players unfamiliarity with Farmstead and The Surf
Club has put those two courses toward the bottom of the odds and International
World Tour's "quirkiness" also makes it less of birdie course.
First Player to Birdie:
Dan Hoelke: 1-1
Scott Woods: 3-1
Eric Drossner: 4-1
Paul Rovner: 12-1
As stated earlier, many believe that Hoelke is the player who
most needs to get off to a good start and break his streak of consecutive
holes without a birdie. Hoelke birdied very early in last year's opening
round and was followed a few holes later by Woods. At least over the last
three years, neither Woods nor Drossner has ever been the first player to
birdie. Amazingly, Paul Rovner was the first to mark in 2002 at
Shaftsbury Glen and 2001 at The Witch. So, it would appear that the best
buy on the board would be Paul Rovner at 12-1.
Odds to birdie all 7 courses played (7 courses must
be played or No Action):
Scott Woods: 25-1
Dan Hoelke: 30-1
Eric Drossner: 75-1
Paul Rovner: 500-1
There is a prediction that someone will birdie all 7 courses
played. Woods and Hoelke currently hold the "record" for courses birdied
in one tournament at 6 out of 9 courses. Woods is a slight favorite over
Hoelke based largely on last year when Woods scored solo marks at 6 different
courses, while Hoelke has a tendency to throw his birdies in bunches at 1 or 2
courses and go through long droughts. Drossner is still a possibility
but extremely unlikely, especially given that he has NEVER birdied at any of
the Barefoot courses. Many are amazed that Rovner's line is as low as it
is.
Will the foursome score at least 1 birdie at each
round:
Yes:
-300
No:
+200
Last year,the foursome managed to birdie the first 8 courses
before failing to birdie in the 9th and final round at Prestwick Country
Club. The heavy money is on "yes" as most bettors believe that every
course will be birdied. A "Yes" bet requires $300 to win $100.
With the threat of bad weather and maintenance concerns, there has been a bit
of a shift towards "No" as a bet of $100 can yield a $200 payoff.
Odds to make three birdies in one
round:
Dan Hoelke:
10-1
Scott Woods: 15-1
Eric Drossner: 35-1
Paul
Rovner: 100-1
Once again Dan Hoelke is the favorite to score the first 3
birdie round in the history of the MBBC. Hoelke did score three birdies in a
warm-up round just 1 week ago, and has shown that he is capable of doing
it. Woods has only 1 three-birdie round in lifetime and that was in
December of last year. However, in the past he has shown an ability to fire
back-to-back birdies at any time, so that factor alone, makes him a threat in
this category. Eric Drossner and Paul Rovner have each only recorded 1
multiple birdie round in the history of the MBBC, so the chances of a 3 birdie
round are extremely slim.
Odds to win Fairway Accuracy:
Dan
Hoelke: 1-10
Eric Drossner:
8-1
Scott Woods:
8-1
Paul Rovner:
25-1
Dan Hoelke has dominated this category in the 2 years that this
statistic has been kept and is the only player of the foursome who has managed
to hit more than 50% pf the fairways. Not surprisingly, Woods' and
Drossner's statistics have been nearly identical in this category over the
last 2 years, so they have been listed at the same number. Again, many
are amazed that Rovner's number is as low as it is, but there is some fear
that Mr. Rovner will simply use a ptiching wedge on each hole in an effort to
hit the fairway and win this category.
Odds to win Greens in Regulation:
Dan Hoelke: 3-2
Eric Drossner: 2-1
Scott Woods: 4-1
Paul Rovner: 20-1
This statistic has been much closer in the two years that it
has been kept, with Hoelke currently holding the record at 38%. Drossner
and Woods are not far behind with their personal bests at 32% and 28%
respectively. More telling is the fact that Eric Drossner holds the
record for most greens in regulation in one round with 10, while Woods' and
Hoelke's best is 9. Rovner, clearly has a lot of work to do to remain
consistent enough to be a factor in this category.
Over/Under for each player's birdie
total:
2002
2003
2004
Dan Hoelke: 8.5
(3)
7.5
(4)
5.5
Scott Woods: 4.5
(3)
5.5 (6)
4.5
Eric Drossner 2.5
(4)
5.5
(2)
2.5
Paul Rovner 3.5
(4)
3.5
(1)
1.0
Listed are the over/unders that have been set for each player
over the last two years followed by that players actual total birdies in that
year. As you can see, I have not been particularly accurate in setting
these lines. Wit fewer rounds being played, the highest over/under is
Hoelke's at 5.5. Woods's line is at 4.5. Eric Drossner has been set at
2.5 after a fairly weak performance last year. Finally, Paul Rovner's
line has been set at 1.0 and is the first line not to be set at a 1/2 mark.
The sportsbook felt there was too much of a chance that Rovner would only scor
1 birdie and did not want to lose by setting the line at .5 or 1.5. Therefore,
Rovner's line is the toughest line to figure out on which side to bet.
Over/Under for Total Birdies by the
Foursome:
12.5
Last year the over/under was set at what proved to be the
ridiculous total of 18.5. The total was not even close as the players
ended up with just 13 birdies. The birdie totals over the last 5 years
have been as follows: 99 - 8; 00 - 9; 01 - 17; 02 - 14; 03 - 13. The
trends speak for themselves and despite Eric Drossner's hype that he is
expecting a barrage of birdies, the oddsmakers are siding with the
trends and not the hype. With the number of rounds reduced from 9 to 7, there
are some who believe that this current total is much too high. In examining
the trends from year's past, it is not necessarily the number of birdies made
by the leader/winner that pushes the birdie total up, but a higher birdie
total is actually dependent on the # of birdies made by the 2nd and 3rd place
players. Unfortunately, the last place player averages about 1 birdie,
but the play of the 2nd and 3rd place players has led to the record setting
total in 2001 and the somewhat disappointing toal in 2003.
THAT'S IT!!! I AM NOT DOING THIS ANYMORE!!! I've gotten
my haircut, I have a few more things to do at work, then I have to take the
dog to the kennel, wrap my big woody, pack and sit around and wait to go tot
he airport. I have no idea if I'll be doing any sleeping tonight.
There's a good chance that Penn State will be winning a National Chmapionship
sometime tonight in College Football 2005. I arrive in Charlotte at 9:00 a.m.
SEE YOU IN CHARLOTTE!!!!