-----Original Message----- From: Scott Woods [mailto:nittanylion96@hotmail.com] Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 10:33 AM To: dan.hoelke@hjheinz.com; edrossner@rittenhousetrust.com; provner@RITTENHOUSETRUST.com Subject: Final Odds With just 3 days days to go until MBBC VI, the oddsmakers at the MGM Grand Las Vegas Hotel and Casino have set the final odds. Bets will be taken until approximately 1:30 on Thursday, August 15th when the tournament is scheduled to begin. The oddsmakers are expecting heavy betting on golf in the next couple of days, as a quirk in the schedule results in the Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship and the PGA Championship being played in the same weekend. The sportsbook is expecting a lot of Woods/Woods parleys (Tiger to win the PGA and Scott to win the MBBC). What once was a barely noticed tournament, and quite frankly only took place in the mind of one of the participants, the MBBC has quickly become one of the most anticipated tournaments in all of golf. The winner has bragging rights for an entire year, and as a result of a new rule established this year, has the right to host the Myrtle Beach Birdie Champion Challenge played in the early summer and has the honor of selecting the opening round course for the next year's MBBC. What had once been basically a one man competition (because Woods seemed to be the only one who gave a shit) grew into a two man competition the last few years (Hoelke presumably had heard enough shit talking from Woods and rose to the challenge) and now appears to be a wide open affair this year with all of the competitors having a legitimate chance to capture this year's title. This year's tournament promises to be the most hotly contested in its 6 year history and here is how the oddsmakers have ranked the competitors: Dan Hoelke: 3:2 Defending champion Stormin' Dan Hoelke is the oddsmakers' choice at 3:2. He is probably the most prepared of the foursome as he has been playing every Tuesday night and several times on recent weekends. He will play the Tuesday evening before the start of the MBBC which should give him a huge advantage. Reports on Hoelke's play indicate that he is playing about as well as he ever as. He recently commented that he would not be using Paul Rovner's King Cobra driver as he is hitting his own clubs so remarkably well. Hoelke has averaged just over 1 birdie per round in his warm up rounds. On several rounds he has managed two birdies, but I do not believe he has ever managed a 3 birdie round. Right now the only question mark among bettors is Hoelke's consistency with the putter. Hoelke was impressive with "the blade" in last year's tournament as he blew away the field in record setting fashion. Hoelke will experience the occassional lapse in putting, but his ability to overcome the occassional 3 putt rather then allow it to ruin his entire round is another factor that makes him the betting choice. The courses selected for this year's tournament set up well for Hoelke's style of play and could help him back up his promise to score a double digit birdie total. Shaftesbury Glen is considered a wide open course with few difficulties, meaning there should be numerous birdie opportunites. Friday's rounds at The Thistle and Crow Creek are also considered birdie friendly courses and Hoelke may have an opportunity to jump out to a huge lead in the first three rounds. Saturday's round at Caledonia should prove to be extremely challenging especially given the fact that Caledonia features Bermuda grass greens, which Hoelke is not a fan of. The last 5 rounds will take place on progressively more difficult courses which may put birdies at a premium. Many believe that this year's tournament will be decided in the first four rounds and that Hoelke's practice regimen and consistency will help him jump out to an early lead and possibly put the tournament away by Sunday. If, and it may be a big "if", Hoelke is unable to score well in the first four rounds, this could be an extremely tense competition over the final 5 rounds. A notorious slow starter, Hoelke can not afford to "leave the door open" for his competitors by not playing well in the opening rounds of this year's tournament. Scott Woods: 11:1 The biggest question mark in the tournament, Woods has returned as the oddsmakers second choice after being placed at 40:1 earlier in the year. Woods remains the only player in the field who has not scored a legitimate birdie in any of his practice rounds. He recently bought new clubs and has struggled with his distance control and consistency. He also purchased a new driver and has vowed not to use Rovner's King Cobra. He appears to be hitting the new driver well, but not nearly as well as he hits Rovner's King Cobra. Many people still feel that Woods will turn it on come crunch time and will be Hoelke's main competition in the tournament. Woods has a history of not playing well prior to the MBBC and then finding a way to make birdies and challenge for the title. Woods will probably have the most pressure on him to make birdies early in the tournament. A birdie in the opening round at Shaftesbury Glen will do wonders for his confidence and should allow him to relax and make birdies for the rest of the tournament. If Woods struggles in the opening round, it could be a long tournament for the four time champion. Many are concerned about the fact that Woods has never made more then 5 birdies in an entire tournament. After last year, when Hoelke won with a record setting 8 birdies, it is clear that 5 will no longer be enough to win the tournament. There is some question as to whether or not Woods has the ability to make 8 birdies over the 9 round tournament. Woods has not maintained the workout and diet regimines that he vowed to keep in order to prepare for the MBBC. Despite joining Bally's close to a year ago (likely under the assumption that it was the Bally's Casino and not Bally's gym) Woods has not seen the inside of a gym in nearly 6 months. And his eating habits are at an all time low as he spends his weekends eating frenchbread pizza and fast food. There are rumors that The Mystic Sea Hotel (the host hotel for the players) will not allow Woods to jump into the pool out of fear that he will splash all of the water out of the pool. Woods has downplayed any questions regarding his preparation for this year's tournament claiming he has done nothing different then in years' past. Paul Rovner: 15:1 The Darkhorse... After struggling for years in the MBBC, Rovner made an early statement last year that he was learning the nuances of the game and would be a contender in 2002. Rovner has come a long way in the 6 years since he first picked up a golf club and took lessons from a woman. At times in the past, he has appeared to have no clue whatsoever as to what he was doing. His grip and stance were ugly and he seemed more concerned about finding golf balls and keeping stats then he did about making birdies. Don't get me wrong, Rovner still cares a great deal about finding golf balls and keeping stats, but he is also hungry for the MBBC title. In a recent practice round, Rovner fired an incredible 3 birdies and apparently narrowly missed a fourth. The three birdies matched his total from last year's MBBC entirely. Rovner is full of confidence and he will be a dangerous player this year. Rovner must play a complete tournament this year if he hopes to contend for the title. He got off to a hot start last year, but then fell apart in the second half of the tournament. Some oddsmakers believe that Rovner's ankle injury last year got the better of him toward the end of the tournament and this, at least in part, contributed to his lackluster play in the final few rounds. Rovner is completely healthy this year, although he still wears his air cast as precautionary measure. The biggest determining factor for Rovner, will be his ability to recover for morning rounds after a nights of heavy drinking. Last year, Rovner was completely useless during one of the rounds at Man O'War after the competitiors had spent the night binge drinking. He shot a miserable round in the vicinity of 120 and the other competitiors were betting on whether he would be able to play in the afternoon round. He was saved only by a package of peanut butter crackers, but was never close to birdying the entire day and may have still been feeling the effects during his lackluster play the next day. With the competitors vowing to do some heavy drinking this year, clearly Rovner must find a way to shake off the effects the next morning if he hopes to contend for the title because not drinking is clearly not an option. Eric Drossner: 25:1 It has been an interesting offseason for the player who was once considered the biggest "up and comer" in the birdie championship. His career is reminiscent of that of Ryan Leaf. A brash young man with unlimited potential, Drossner was annointed as the one player who could challenge Woods and Hoelke in the MBBC. Drossner talked the talk and showed promise in pre-tournament rounds in the past before failing to impress come tournament time. Each year, it seemed that oddsmakers predicted it would be a breakout year for Drossner and each year he failed miserably. Last year Drossner hit rock bottom, finishing last in the Birdie Championship. However, many were impressed with the way that Drossner handled last year's bitter disappointment. He refused to offer excuses for his poor play and after taking some time off, he rededicated himself to improving his game and once again becoming a legitimate challenger in the MBBC. Recent warm up round reports have been extremely promising. Drossner has made several birdies and his swagger has returned albeit, a little less then in year's past. The key to success for Drossner is that he must play his own game for the first few rounds of this year's tournament. He can not be concerned with the leaderboard and what the other players are doing. Last year, many believe that Drossner quit after falling behind early, and was especially disheartened to see annual doormat Paul Rovner storm out of the gates to an early lead. Drossner must stay within himself and see where he is in the standings after the fourth round on Saturday. If Drossner is still in contention at that point, he must make a charge in Sundays' rounds at his beloved Barefoot Landing courses if he hopes to contend for the title. Other Bets: First Player to Birdie: Dan Hoelke - 1:1 Paul Rovner - 5:1 Eric Drossner - 10:1 Scott Woods - 15:1 This bet is simialr to the one in Super Bowls about which player will be the first to score. Playing as well as he is, it's hard to bet against Hoelke firing an early birdie in the opening round on the wide open and birdie friendly Shaftesbury Glen. Hoelke was the first to birdie last year, although Rovner responded with two impressive birdies of his own, so he is made the second favorite in this category. Bettors really have no idea how Drossner will come out of the gates, but the expectation is that he will attempt to make an early push in order to put some pressure on the other players. To the best of this writer's recollection, Woods has never birdied in the opening round of an MBBC, so this factor along with his recent struggles suggest he will not be the man to make the opening mark of the tournament. Consecutive Birdies: Scott Woods - 12:1 Dan Hoelke - 15:1 Paul Rovner - 50:1 Eric Drossner - 100:1 Woods remains the only player to ever a fire birdies on consecutive holes, a feat he has accomplished twice, once in each of the last two MBBC's. In fact, he nearly fired three consecutive birdies in the 1999 MBBC, barely missing his birdie putt on the hole. Hoelke certainly has the ability and consistency to get it done. While Rovner and Drossner can throw the occassional dart, it remains to be seen if they can string together enough shots to make consecutive birdies. Odds to win the Par 3 Challenge: A new contest will be brought to Myrtle Beach 2002 (that is, of course, if you want to play) and perhaps it will have the following similar to the MBBC... It is to be named The Par 3 Challenge and the rules are fairly simple: The player closest to the pin ON THE GREEN on each Par 3 gets 1 point regardless of whether or not he makes par. A par by any player is worth 1 point and a birdie is worth 2 points. Anything worse then par is worth 0 points and there are no negative points except for the following: On any Par 3 players have the option of "calling" closest to the pin, birdie or par before their shot. If they are correct in their prediction then they earn double the available points. (Incidentally, if you birdie after calling Par, you simply receive the 2 points for the birdie). However, if the player is incorrect in their call then they lose double the points. (If you par when you call birdie, you lose double the birdie total... four points). As an example, Droz feeling cocky and talking shit on the first Par 3 at Shaftesbury Glen proceeds to call "closest to the pin" and "birdie". Droz then proceeds to CHUNK his wedge into the water giving him -2 for the incorrect call on closest to the pin and -4 for the incorrect birdie call resulting in a total score of -6. Dan makes no call and his closest to the pin and makes his birdie putt for a total score of 3. Paul and I bogey for total scores of 0. I think it might work pretty well, and should be pretty fun if we can get it to last throughout all 9 rounds... so here are the odds to win: Dan Hoelke: 5:1 Eric Drossner: 10:1 Scott Woods: 25:1 Paul Rovner: 30:1 Dan is established as the early favorite because he is the better player and he is generally consistent on Par 3. Another factor is his general reluctance for gambling on sporting events so it seems unlikely that he would risk points by making calls. The other three players are complete suckers for predicting their shots (Paul especially has never seen a bet he didn't like) and I would expect that each of their scores will be in the negatives from consistently incorrect calls by the end of the trip. Odds to Eagle: Dan Hoelke: 7:1 Scott Woods: 25:1 Eric Drossner: 35:1 Paul Rovner: 100:1 Hoelke had a legitimate eagle opportunity in last year's round but left the putt short (like his dick) possibly due to the fact that he was informed that an eagle was not a birdie for purposes of the MBBC. It may have also been due to the fact that Hoelke is a shitty putter. Regardless, Hoelke is the most likely of the foursome to birdie. Woods has had few eagle opportunites in his career and that pattern is not likely to change. Drossner is a longer shot to fire an eagle and Rovner is generally considered to not be able to get it done. Odds to Break 90: Dan Hoelke: 1:10 Scott Woods: 1:2 Eric Drossner: 1:2 Paul Rovner: 25:1 Hoelke is basically a lock to break 90 and will probably do it during the opening round. Drossner and Woods generally manage a round or two in the 80's but have been known to sprinkly some double pars and double digits in their rounds on a consistent basis which could make breaking 90 such a lock for them. I don't believe Rovner has ever broken 90 on any course other then a mini-golf course and unless he plays lights out one round, I don't think it will happen on this trip either. Give him credit thought, his odds are not astronomical indicating the oddsmakers recognize that he is an improving player and there is a chance that he could do it. Over/Under for each players birdie totals: (no mulligans) Dan Hoelke: 8.5 Paul Rovner: 3.5 Eric Drossner: 2.5 Scott Woods: 4.5 Hoelke is being challenged to better his total from last year. Rovner must set a personal best in total birdies in order to go over his total. Droz would appear to be the biggest "lock" to go over his total although that may be questionable considering last year's 1 birdie performance. Once again MBBC oddsmakers have no idea what to expect from Woods but given the fact that he has scored 4, 4, and 5 birdies the last three years, 4.5 appears to be a good number. Odds for Total Birdies by the foursome (no mulligans): 0-15: 50:1 16-20: 10:1 20-25: 20:1 25+: 250:1 Last year's legit birdie total for the group was an impressive 17 (1 by Droz, 3 by Paul, 5 by Scott and 8 by Dan). That, of course, was a record number of birdies for the foursome. Oddsmakers seem to think that this total will either stay nearly the same or go up given the focus of each player on making birdies. A birdie total less then 15 would be disappointing but could mean a major upset in the championship while a total of more then 25 may mean that Hoelke is on fire and the other players are also scoring well. Odds to puke: Scott Woods: 4:1 Paul Rovner: 15:1 Eric Drossner: 40:1 Dan Hoelke: 100:1 Most would think that Rovner would be the favorite in this category but the question is whether or not he will drink enough to make himself sick. He seems to have learned over the years that he is not a good drinker and he knows when to say when and will no longer cross that line. Woods has been a huge advocate of making this The Year of the Puke so it may be up to him to make it happen. A man with a fairly weak stomach, if Woods does enough shots and follows them with enough crappy beer, look for a fewe hot dogs and BK hamburgers and french fries to hopefully end up in the nearest toilet. I can only recall "hearing" Droz puke (and smelling) after the infamous evening of the three of you doing lemon vodka shots. I don't think I've ever seen him puke any other time. And I don't think I've EVER seen Hoelke puke. I'll do my best to change that this year, but I'm not sure if it can be done. Gentlemen, this is about all I've got for these. I hope that you enjoy the final odds as I now turn my attention to finishing the Predictions e-mail which should be out early this afternoon. I just need to make a few changes. Hope you enjoy these odds. Let me know what you guys think of the MBPTC (Myrtle Beach Par Three Challenge)... _____ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: Click Here