Subject: FW: 2011 MBBC Odds

From: Scott Woods [mailto:nittanylion96@hotmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, July 31, 2011 10:56 PM
To: Dan Hoelke; danhoelke@hotmail.com; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner; Scott Woods
Subject: 2011 MBBC Odds

The members of the MBBCGA have had to wait longer than usual for the 2011 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship.  As has been the case on several prior occasions, life events forced organizers to move the tournament from May/June to August.  This time around, it was Eric Drossner's wife's selfless decision to carry her sister's baby.  The players have taken advantage of the extra time by playing numerous warm-up rounds, which has only added to the anticipation of the 15th edition of the MBBC.  While there are no stats to back it up, it is believed that the players have played more warm-up rounds combined this year then in any other year.  The majority of the warm-up rounds have been productive (meaning birdies were fired), which has led many to predict that this will be the highest scoring and most hotly contested MBBC in history.  It is believed that this statement has been made about every MBBC, but the experts truly believe that this will be a record-setting year.  While August in Myrtle Beach can feature oppressive heat and humidity that drains the players, early forecasts suggest that weather conditions will at least be bearable and could even be favorable for scoring.  As always, the MBBC features a top-notch lineup that includes some old favorites and two new venues.   The players will fly into Wilmington, North Carolina, where they will be picked up by Scott Woods on his way down from a family vacation in the Outer Banks.  Then, for the first time ever, the MBBC will feature a sanctioned tournament event outside of the Myrtle Beach area, as the opening round will be held at the Cape Fear National Golf Club in Wilmington.  The next day, the players will play their two favorite courses, Barefoot Love and Fazio.  There has been some discussion about moving back a set of tees at the Fazio course, but that has not been confirmed.  Day 3 may be one of the most anticipated days in MBBC history.  For years, MBBC organizers have tried to get access to the Grande Dunes members course.  The dream has finallly become a reality.  The morning round will be played at the well known Resort Course, and then the afternoon round will be played at the completely unknown Members Course.  Day 4 will feature a return to Barefoot Love and Fazio, and the MBBC will wrap up at the scenic, but always difficult Tidewater. 

Once again, The Flamingo Las Vegas Hotel and Casino is proud to present the odds for the 2011 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship:

Odds to win

Eric Drossner

Opening Line -    2:1

Updated Line -    3:2

Closing Line -     1:1

The 4-time defending champion remains the favorite to capture his fifth title despite some doubts about his chances earlier in the year.  Drossner has played more warm-up rounds then he previously indicated he would, and he has shown no signs of any problems with his knee or shoulder.  In addition, Drossner is reportedly playing extremely well.  As usual, Drossner is very confident heading into the MBBC, and has gone as far to predict that he will reach double digits in birdies.  Despite his four consecutive titles, there are STILL doubts about Drossner's ability to capture the title.  Doubters continue to point to the fact that Drossner has fired more then 4 birdies on only one occasion and that 2 of his 4 consecutive titles have come by way of the controversial tiebreaker rule.  Over the last several years, Drossner has been the best overall player in the MBBC.  Drossner usually plays well and seems to avoid the lengthy spells of bad play that tend to plague the other players.  Drossner's consistency and his ability to come from behind (as he's done in the final round 2 of the last 3 years) means that it is not as crucial for Drossner to birdie in the opening round as it is for the other players.  However, if Drossner does strike early, it could mean trouble for the rest of the foursome.

Scott Woods

Opening Line -    5:2

Updated Line -   2:1

Closing Line -    6:5

There is no doubt that Woods is more prepared then he ever has been before an MBBC.  Woods appears to be on a mission to capture the 2011 title.  He has regularly fired birdies in his warm-up rounds.  However, during his warm-up rounds, Woods seemed to "relax" after making a birdie, which usually prevented him firing firing multiple birdies.  With birdie totals expected to be at a record high, Woods will likely need to have at least one multiple birdie round in order to capture the title.  Many are concerned about whether or not Woods will be ready to contend in the opening round.  While the other players will have relatively easy flights into Wilmington, Woods will have to endure a grueling journey to the first tee of the MBBC.  Woods will have a 5 hour drive in the middle of the night with his family from his home to the Outer Banks On Thursday morning.  He will stay in the Outer Banks for approximatey 24 hours, before then making the 6 hour drive down the coast to pick up the rest of the players in Wilmington on Friday.  Woods contends that his journey will be little different then the sleepless nights he used to spend before his flights to Myrtle in previous years, and that he will be more than ready to go at Cape Fear National Golf Club.  Woods will certainly be looking to make a statement early.  However, Woods should probably be more concerned about closing out the tournament as he failed to do in 2008 and 2010.   

Dan Hoelke

Opening Line -    5:1

Updated Line -   3:1

Current Line -    3:2

Until the last several weeks, Hoelke was nothing more than an afterthought when it came to his chances of winning the 2011 title.  Hoelke's play over the last several years has been inconsistent, to say the least.  At times, he has looked lost, and he has left many wondering where the old Dan Hoelke went and if he would ever come back.  Reports out of Pittsburgh suggest that the old Dan Hoelke is back and more ready then ever to contend for the title.  Hoelke has continued to fire birdies in his warm-up rounds, including one in a round on Saturday.  While Hoelke claims that he is continuing to struggle off the tee, his irons are "lights out" and his putting has been solid during his warm-up rounds.  When the opening odds for the 2011 MBBC were published, Hoelke was considered the "darkhorse."  However, his play over the last month or so has made him a serious contender and prevents him from maintaining his "darkhorse" status.  Hoelke does still tend to get very frustrated with his game, so, while all players will be looking to mark early, an early birdie by Hoelke would do him a world of good. 

Paul Rovner

Opening Line -   45:1

Updated Line -   30:1

Current Line -    18:1

Paul Rovner's odds of winning the title have dropped rather dramatically over the last several months, suggesting that the oddsmakers believe that Rovner actually has a legitimate chance to pull off an amazing upset.  Rovner has played numerous warm-up rounds and appears to be as prepared as any other player.  The birdies have not come for Rovner during his warm-up rounds, but many believe that this year could be like 2004 when Rovner came from nowhere to capture a share of the title.  Rovner fired 2 birdies last year, but had several other chances that he failed to take advantage of.  While many believe that Rovner is still a year or two away from contending, if he is able to convert his chances, he could make a surprise appearance atop the leaderboard. 

Over/Under - Hole on which the first birdie will be made

5.5

This was a popular odd last year.  Through 11 tournaments, the average for the first strike is 8.1 holes.  As was pointed out in last years odds, this average is largely skewed by the groups struggles in 2006 when they failed to birdie in the opening round at Long Bay and it took 24 holes before Paul Rovner found the mark.  In fact, 2006 was the only year that it took more than 14 holes for the group to strike.  Last years line was set at 6.5, and it was not until the 7th hole at the Myrtlewood Palmetto course that Eric Drossner birdied.  This years MBBC will open at the unknown Cape Fear National Golf CLub.  The players have spent months scouting the course looking for possible birdie opportunities, and some have predicted a mark could come very early.  The only question is whether it will come before or after the 5th hole.

Over/Under - Opening Round Birdies

2.5

There has been a lot of discussion about this line over the last several weeks, with Eric Drossner claiming that there will be a plethora of birdies on Day 1.  The average number of birdies in the opening round (on one occasion the opening round was not played until the next day because of rain, but that round's stats were still considered for this stat) is 2.08.  The most birdies fired by the group in the opening round was 4 at Wicked Stick in 2009, and the least was 0 at Long Bay in 2006, which was the only year that the foursome failed to birdie on the opening day.  The opening round is usually at a new course, so the group's unfamiliarity with a course appears to have had no affect on the nujmber of birdies made.  As indicated above, the players have been scouting Cape Fear National Golf Club for several months now, and at least one player believes there will be a barrage of birdies.

Over/Under - Length of Longest Birdie

25.5 feet

This is the first time that this line has been offered.  While the MBBC does not keep official stats regarding the lengths of birdies putts, the oddsmakers are confdent that they can correctly estimate the lengths of all made birdies.  The majority of the foursome's birdies are relatively short putts.  However, there often much longer putts made or chip-ins that make this an interesting prop. bet.

Will Hole #4 at Barefoot Love be birdied?

Yes      +150

No        -200

The group's favorite hole has not been birdied since 2006, when Woods and Hoelke both managed to make a 3 on the driveable Par 4.  Since then, the Love course has been played 4 times including back-to-back in 2010, and the players have been unable to birdie the 4th.  The foursome will get 2 shots at it again in 2011, but the oddsmakers believe that they will again fail to birdie. 

Over/Under for each player's birdie total:

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Eric Drossner          2.5 (4)     5.5 (2)     2.5 (4)     3.5 (2)      2.5 (4)      2.5 (4)     3.5 (4)     3.5 (9)      5.5 (4)      6.5
Dan Hoelke             8.5 (3)     7.5 (4)     5.5 (6)     6.5 (8)      8.5 (7)      N/A          6.5 (4)     5.5 (4)      5.5 (3)      5.5
Scott Woods          4.5 (3)     5.5 (6)     4.5 (3)     3.5 (4)      5.5 (5)      3.5 (2)     4.5 (4)     3.5 (2)      3.5 (4)      5.5
Paul Rovner            3.5 (4)     3.5 (1)     1.0 (2)     1.5 (3)      3.5 (3)      1.5 (2)     2.5 (0)     0.5 (1)      1.5 (2)      2.5

The oddsmakers clearly believe that there will be more scoring this year, as each player's over/under appears to have been set higher than might have been expected.  Eric Drossner's total has been set higher then it ever has been before; strange in light of the fact that Drossner has only fired more then 4 birdies once in 9 years.  Dan Hoelke has not fired more then 4 birdies in the 3 years since his return from his knee injury.  Scott Woods has not made more than 5 birdies since his last title in 2003.  Paul Rovner has not made more that 2 birdies since 2006.  Perhaps the oddsmakers have fallen victim to the hype about record setting scores, or perhaps the oddsmakers know something... 

Over/Under for total birdies by the foursome

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008 2009 2010 2011

18.5 (13)    12.5 (15)    14.5 (17)    19.5 (19)    8.5 (8)        16.5 (12)    15.5 (16)    14.5 (13)     16.5

This is perhaps the most debated and anticipated line that the oddsmakers set for the MBBC.  The oddsmakers try to stay objective when setting this line.  They gather as much information as possible and certainly listen to the thoughts of the members of the MBBC, but try not to be swayed by the sometimes unrealistic expectations.  It seems that just about every year, there are predictions for a record-setting number of birdies.  With all of the warm-up rounds that have been played this year, there may be some validity to that prediction and many believe that the record total of 19 is in serious jeopardy.  However, as always, the oddsmakers focus more on past results then they do on predictions.  In 7 years (which does not include the 3-man year of 2007), the foursome has only managed to fire more then 16 birdies on two occasions.  The stats simply do not lie...