From: Scott <nittanylion96@hotmail.com>

Sent: Thursday, September 18, 2014 10:54 PM

To: Dan Hoelke; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner; Scott

Subject: MBBC XVIII Odds

What is believed to have been the longest wait between MBBC's is finally over.  Completely unproductive work days filled with mindless MBBC chatter are behind us.  Gone are the warm-up rounds and driving range sessions in the hot summer sun.  The 18th annual Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship has finally arrived and with it comes the much anticipated odds.

Odds to Win

Eric Drossner:
Opening Line:  1-5
Closing Line:  1-2

Drossner remains the heavy favorite to win the 2014 title.  He is the most prepared, having joined a club and playing more warm-up rounds then anyone else.  Drossner did seem to struggle during stretches of the summer, but he appears to be peaking at the right time, as he birdied in his final warm-up round at Trump National just 2 days before the tournament.  Drossner is far and away the best player in the MBBC.  Drossner is also the player most likely to post a high number of birdies.  As always, Drossner maintains the tie breaker, makingit even more likely that he retains his title.  The reality is that another player is going to have to get very hot in order for Drossner not to win another title.

Dan Hoelke:
Opening Line:  3-1
Closing Line:  7-2*

Dan Hoelke remains the most enigmatic player in the MBBC.  The annual hype surrounding Hoelke's chances to win the title began several months ago.  Hoelke seemed to back up that hype by firing birdies during the Hilton Head Birdie Championship and continuing to do so in other warm-up rounds.  However, Hoelke has not been as active over the last few weeks, and there is some concern that he is not adequately prepared for the 5-day grind of the MBBC.  Hoelke has downplayed the small number of warm-up rounds played, claiming that it was the quality of those rounds and his constant trips to the driving range that have him prepared to contend.  For what it's worth, Hoelke does seem more relaxed then he has been in years past.  That is not to suggest that Hoelke doesn't care or doesn't think he can win.  Quite the contrary... Hoelke seems to be quietly confident in his game and not putting the pressure on himself that he has in previous years.  Many in the Hoelke camp believe that a new attitude will yield different results.  

* This line takes into consideration the late breaking news that Hoelke lost a filling the night before the MBBC.

Scott Woods:
Opening Line:  8-1
Closing Line:  6-1

Woods has had an up and down summer.  Woods' strategy was to play as often as possible during the summer, risking his job and family in the process.  Woods believes that playing as many rounds as possible is the best way for him to prepare for the MBBC, and he generally stays away from the driving range.  Woods played a variety of high-quality of courses throughout the state of Maryland, and another in the Outer Banks, North Carolina.  After a slow start birdie-wise, Woods at one point birdied 5 courses in a row and was brimming with confidence.  However, his preparation ended on a sour note.  On his final warm-up round, Woods missed a 2 foot birdie putt and struggled mightily the rest of his round.  Determined to find an elusive birdie, Woods decided to play again that day, simulating an MBBC day, but played even worse in his second round to the point that he ran out of balls and had to quit.  Reports out of Maryland are that Woods was devastated by that performance as it reminded him of his annual struggles in the later rounds of the MBBC.  Woods has not picked up a club since that round and there is some concern that he is not in the right frame of mind to make a run at the title.  In addition, while Woods was able to consistently make birdies during his warm-up rounds, he was unable to make multiple birdies in 1 round, a key to winning the title.   However, Woods' preparation cannot be ignored as he has played more than he ever has before an MBBC, and all of that hard work should yield results in the tournament.  Whether it will be enough for Woods to finally get over the hump, remains to be seen.

Paul Rovner:
Opening Line:  30-1
Closing Line: 30-1

Paul Rovner has taken a long, strange path to the 2014 MBBC.  He opened the season on Kiawah Island, where he managed to birdie 2 of the most difficult golf courses in the world.  Rovner continued playing over the next few months, but then suddenly decided that he was not happy with his game.  He then made the somewhat bizarre decision to take lessons just 2 months before the MBBC.  Many people doubt whether a player can be successful just a matter of weeks after his swing has been altered.  Reports out of Philadelphia have been sketchy with Rovner remaining positive and contending that he is very pleased with the state of his game and that he is looking forward to the MBBC. Rovner's confidence is eerily similar to that in 2012, when other players and Vegas doubted his ablity to contend, and he fired 7 birdies, including an impressive 3 on the final day to take home the trophy.  Still Rovner's swing changes and his lack of warm=up rounds remain major concerns.  AN even bigger concern is whether Rovner's swing changes can withstand 8 rounds in 5 days.       

Over/Under - Hole on which the first birdie will be made

9.5

The oddsmakers had a much tougher time setting the line this year then they did last year, when the MBBC opened at Barefoot Love.  The 2014 MBBC opens at the little known (and possibly suspect) Founder's Club.  A quick glance at the scorecard (basically the only inofrmation about the course available on line, which is yet another red flag) does not reveal any obvious birdie opportunities.  With the overall quality of play of the foursome expected to be improved due to more practice and the predictions of a barrage, a birdie could be made at any time.  Vegas has forced bettors to decide if the opening birdie will occur on the front 9 or back 9...

Over/Under - Total birdies by the foursome in the opening round

3.5

It appears that the oddsmakers believe the birdie barrage hype that has been brewing over the last several months, as they have set the over/under at an incredibly high total.  This line appears to be begging bettors to take the under.  However, it also appears to be one of those lines that's too good to be true, because Vega has some inside information. The members of the MBBC generally play well in the opening round of the tournament, so birdie opportunities seem to be more prevelant.

Individual Player Over/Unders

Eric Drossner:   7.5

Scott Woods:  5.5

Dan Hoelke:  4.5

Paul Rovner:  1.5

The oddsmakers are obviously expecting a barrage of birdies, at least from defending champion Eric Drossner.  An interesting betting fact... An individual player's over/under has been set at 7.5 or higher on 3 different occasions (all 3 times were for Dan Hoelke).  On those 3 occasions, the total never went over.  An individual player's over/under has been set at 6.5 on 4 different occasions (twice for Hoelke and twice for Drossner).  The total went over on 3 of 4 of those occasions.  Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the individual over/unders is the fact that the 3rd favorite to win the MBBC, Woods, has a higher over/under than the second favorite, Hoelke.  Onceagain, the oddsmakers point to the stats.  Hoelke has not made more than 4 birdies since 2006.  Woods made 5 birdies in 2011 and 6 in 2010.  Finally, there is bound to be quite a bit of debate regarding Paul Rover's over/under.  Quite simply, the oddsmakers were not swayed by Rovner's bravado and assurances that he will play well this year.  Rovner's history combined with his swing changes have the oddsmakers believing that he is in for a long tournament.

Group Over/Under

17.5

As usual, there was significant debate regarding this line.  Many believe that this will be a record-setting year, with the group record of 19 set to be shattered.  The oddsmakers appear less convinced that the group record is going to be broken.  POnce again, they rely on the stats...  The totals the last 3 years have been 18, 19 and 17.  A record setting total basically requies all 4 players to play well.  History suggests, that just does not happen, and while the oddsmakers believe that totals will be up, they doubt that the record will be broken.