From: Scott Woods
[nittanylion96@hotmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, August 02, 2009 1:46
PM
To: Dan Hoelke; Eric A. Drossner; Paul S. Rovner; Scott
Woods
Subject: MBBC XIII - ODDS
It's been more than a year since
the 2008 Myrtle Beach Birdie Championship ended, and fans are still talking
about what is sure to be remembered as the most exciting finish in MBBC
history. With Scott Woods only one hole away from his first title since
2003, the players turned to the Par 5 18th hole at Man O' War... Both
Stormin' Dan Hoelke and Defending Champion Eric Drossner managed to
reach the green in 2 shots, setting up the miraculous finish. Shakey
third shots left both Drossner and Hoelke with lengthy birdie putts, Hoelke's
to grab a share of the title with Woods, and Drossner's to capture the
title by virtue of the tie breaker rule. Drossner promptly drained his
birdie putt to capture the title. Hoelke powered his in as well for
good measure. All of that excitement left golf fans world wide hungry
for more. Unfortunately, the world has had to wait even longer for the
13th installment of the MBBC. Once again, life interfered with the MBBC as
Scott Woods scheduled his wedding for the end of May. Woods pressed
for the tournament to still be played in the weeks prior to or after his
wedding, but the players ultimately agreed to move it back to the beginning
of August. Fans and players alike were disappointed by the move to
August. Despite having only been played in May or June for two years (one
of which was without Hoelke), the tournament seemed to have found a home in
that time. Both players and fans were grateful that the tournament had
moved away from the oppressive heat and hurricane threats common in the month of
August. After the dramatic close to the 2008 event, players and fans were
also anxious to see what would happen in 2009. While everyone would rather
the tournament have been played in May or June, the extra months have only
fueled the excitement for this year's event.
Besides the
drama of last year's tournament, there are a number of story lines to follow in
2009. First and foremost, has to be the veritable anchor that is 254
consecutive holes without a birdie hanging around the neck of Paul
Rovner. Everyone is wondering if and when Rovner can break this
streak of futility. Then there is the story of whether or not Stormin' Dan
Hoelke can recapture the magic from years past and put on a dominating
performance. There is also the comeback story of Scott Woods... the
once proud champion who had his heart ripped out on the final hole of 2008, and
who is trying to capture his first title since 2003. And finally,
there is the story of 2-time defending champion Eric Drossner. Once again,
questions surround his preparation and ability and whether or not he can become
the third player to win 3 straight titles.
There are also many
questions regarding the tournament itself. Many wonder how the players
will react to the oppressive heat of early August. As of the writing of
this article, temperatures were in the upper 80's, but the heat index was
climbing over 100 degrees. While the players are not overly excited about
the weather, some have suggested that the trends in the stats indicate
that the players make more birdies in high heat. While the sample size is
small (only 2 years in May/June with Hoelke out one of those years), there is a
signifcant difference in the number of birdies made in early August. Some
are predicting one of the highest scoring tournaments ever. This year's
tournament may also feature one of the greatest lineups of courses ever.
The tournament will open at Champion Eric Drossner's selection of Wicked
Stick. After what is expected to be a long evening, the tournament turns
to the beautiful but difficult combo of True Blue and Caledonia. Sunday
finds the tournament at Grande Dunes with hopes that the afternoon will be on
the Member's Course, but likely a return to Tidewater. Monday, the
players return to their favorite venues, Barefoot Fazio and Barefoot Love and
the tournament will conclude at the formidable Dunes Club. A solid
line-up, to say the least...
And so, without much further ado, it
is time to unveil the odds and prop bets for the 2009 Myrtle Beach Birdie
Championship:
Odds to Win the
Title
Dan Hoelke -
1:5
A review of previous odds e-mails reveals, that other than the
year he was out due to injury, Stormin' Dan Hoelke has been established as
at least a Co-favorite going into the tournament since at least 2002.
This year's line is believed to be the lowest for a favorite in the history
of the tournament. Despite being the oddsmakers' favorite for all of those
years, Hoelke has only managed to capture the title three of those years, so
victory is not assured. As is always the case, Hoelke is the most prepared
of the foursome. Once again, he has played on an almost weekly basis, and
has reported a fair share of birdies. Hoelke also has the advantage of
having played in Myrtle Beach just a few weeks ago. The Hilton Head Birdie
Championship was cancelled due to lack of fan interest and corporate
sponsorship, and was replaced by a mini-MBBC. Hoelke played 3 times, while
down there including two rounds at Barefoot Love. Hoelke fired 2 birdies
on the Love Course and vowed to return in a few weeks to make even
more birdies. Hoelke's inconsistency over the years has become something
of a mystery. He routinely makes birdies in non-MBBC rounds, and seems on
the verge of a dominating performance in Myrtle Beach only to to struggle and
fire just a handful of birdies. Certainly, the pressure of an MBBC is
a factor for all players, but it seems unlikely that this is the
cause of Hoelke's failures. The weather and excessive drinking would
also seem to be factors, but Hoelke has dealt well with similar weather
conditions in the past, and he seems to thrive on being hung-over.
For whatever reasons, Hoelke seems to get into "funks" where he struggles to get
off the tee, struggles with his approach shots and struggles with his
putter. Some have suggested that Hoelke is simply guilty of trying
too hard and wanting the MBBC title too much. Many feel that Hoelke needs
to simply relax, and that if he plays the way he is capable, the
birdies will come. This year's lineup would once again appear to favor
Hoelke. Hoelke has posted impressive performances at the Barefoot courses
and leads the foursome in birdies at Grande Dunes. The oddsmaker have not
forgotten the 6 birdies Hoelke posted at Barefoot Love and Fazio in 2005.
Should Hoelke fall behind early, he should still have confidence knowing
that the Barefoot Courses will be played on
Monday.
Eric Drossner -
5:2
Say what you want about Drossner's brash style and annual
cavalier approach to the MBBC, but he has found a way to win consecutive titles
for the first time in his career, and certainly cannot be ignored in the chase
for the 2009 title. Drossner's performance in 2007 was
considered anything but impressive. Many felt that it was a tainted title
since Dan Hoelke did not participate. However, Drossner responded to the
criticism by winning the 2008 title in dramatic fashion. Again, some
have criticized Drosnner for winning only by virtue of the tie-breaker and also
for winning with a less than impressive total of only 4 birdies. However,
it is hard to criticize Drossner for doing enough to win the title in both
years. In fact, his final hole birdie in 2008 showed that he does have the
heart and determination necessary to become a champion... traits that many had
previously suggested he did not possess. So, despite answering many of the
critics the last couple of years, the one question that haunts Drossner heading
into the 2009 tournament is... Can he do it again? The stats suggest that
Drossner cannot do it again. He has never made more than 4 birdies in a
tournament, and it seems highly unlikely that 4 will be enough for him to
win again. In addition, it would seem that Drossner MUST break his
birdie cherry at Barefoot Love if he has any chance of retaining his
title. Fans appear to have put little stock in Drossner's
shortcomings In a recent poll, Drossner was the fans' choice to win
the 2009 title.
Scott Woods -
4:1
Scott Woods
has had to spend more than a year dealing with his heart-breaking loss on
the final hole of the 2008 event. Woods appeared to have secured his first
title since 2003, when Drossner snatched it away. Woods has admitted that
it has been difficulty dealing with that loss, and, as a result, he
has mostly gotten away from the game. Woods has played very little
since the 2008 MBBC. He is likely the least prepared for the
Championship. He last played on the morning of his wedding. A
meaningless scramble in the high heat of Key West, Florida. He has not
played since, and only hit the driving range on one occassion.
However, Woods still can't be overlooked. Any doubts about his
ability to still make birdies were elimated in the round played in early May for
his bachelor party. Woods managed a birdie despite relatively poor
play over the entirety of the round. After all of these years, Woods still
has the ability to make birdie at just about any time. While there is no
doubt that Woods has the ability to make birdies, the question remains
whether he can make enough birdies to win the title. As with Drossner,
Woods will likely need to get on an unprecedented hotstreak in order to post a
total high enough for him to win the title. The public has overwhelmingly
voted Woods as the LEAST likely to win the title, as he captured only 1% of
the vote. Woods is very likely to use this as motivation heading into next
week. A 2009 title appears unlikely, but, as always, he cannot be
ignored.
Paul
Rovner - 99:1
The overwhelming consensus is that
Rovner has absolutely no chance of winning the title. With a streak of 254
consecutive holes without a birdie, Rovner's focus has to be on making just 1
birdie. Last year, Rovner became the first player to go an entire year
without a birdie, since he had accomplished that dubious feat in
2000. The strange thing is that Rovner appeared on the verge of becoming a
contender before things fell apart at the end of 2007 and into 2008.
Rovner appears to have lost his game completely, and there appear to be no signs
of an immediate recovery. Rovner has admitted that the "streak"
weighs on him. He thinks about it every day, and finds it difficult to
focus on golf without thinking about the streak. Some have suggested that
Rovner consult with a sports psychologist to help him break out of his slump,
but Rovner has elected to tough it out himself. Rovner's offseason
preparation has also given very little indication that things will be much
brighter for him the 2009 event. Rovner even had the advantage
of a trip to Myrtle Beach in March. However, Rovner's struggles continued
and he was unable to birdie. Rovner has played several more times
during the summer, and Rovner has reported several birdies in the last 2
weeks, which provides him with some much-needed confidence heading to
Myrtle. Besides the streak, Rovner is also dealing with the memories of
two of the shortest misses in MBBC history. In 2006 he missed a 3 footer
for birdie at Legends and in 2008 he missed a 2.5 footer for birdie at
Tidewater. While there are few that believe that Rovner can contend
for the title, this year more than ever, his chances of contending hinge
largely on his ability to strike early. An early birdie could boost
Rovner's confidence and set him on track for an improbable title
run.
First
Player to Birdie
Dan
Hoelke - 1:2
Scott Woods - 3:2
Eric Drossner - 4:1
Paul Rovner - 25:1
The oddsmakers appear to be expecting Hoelke to strike first and lead
wire-to-wire. The aways danagerous Woods is the second favorite to strike
first, having accomplished the feat in 2008. Amazingly, in the 10 years
that stats have been kept, Drossner has only been the first to birdie on 1
occassion. And oddsmakers are not sure if Rovner willl make a single
birdie, much less, be the first to make that birdie.
Course with the Most Birdies by the
Foursome
Barefoot Love
-
1:1
Barefoot Fazio
-
3:2
Grande Dunes/Resort
Course -
3:2
Wicked Stick
-
3:1
Caledonia -
5:1
True Blue
-
8:1
Grande Dunes/Members Course
- 11:1
(if
played)
Tidewater (if played)
-
15:1
The Dunes Club
-
25:1
Barefoot Love, Fazio and Grande Dunes have the top
three birdie totas by the foursome over the years. The Barefoot courses
are the shortest, which should naturally result in more birdies, although Eric
Drossner has never managed a birdie on the Love course, an anomaly that he is
likely to break this year. Wicked Stick is an interesting proposition at
3:1. The players often make several birdies on Day 1, and the course
appears to be one that they can attack. True Blue and Caledonia have the
same number of birdies between them. They are probably the two most
difficult courses that the players wil play, but familiarity could result
in a barrage of birdies. Odds have been set for the two possible replays
on the Grande Dunes Members Course or Tidewater, both of which are difficult,
and could yield few bridies, although the Members Course features a forecaddy,
who might provide some help with birdie putts. Finally, The Dunes Club on
the final day is expected to be a struggle for the players.
Margin of Victory:
0 - 3:1
1 -
2:1
2 - 1:1
3 - 5:1
4 - 10:1
5 or more -
35:1
Last year's tie would have resuted in a nice
payoff, as the line for a tie was set at 5:1. The oddsmakers expect this
year's competition to be close once again with a 1 or 2 birdie victory appearing
to be the most likely. No tournament has ever been won by 5 or more
birdies.
Will
All Four Players Birdie the Same Course:
Yes +6,000
No
-9,000
All four players
have never birdied the same course. In fact, 3 players have only birdied
the same course on 3 occassions. The biggest facor in this bet is whether
or not Paul Rovner can get on track. The Barefoot courses would seem to be
the most ikely candidates for birdies from all 4 players, but Rovner has got to
help the foursome out. A $100 bet on YES would yield a payoff of $6,000,
while a $9,000 bet on NO will only yield a win of $100.
Over/Under
for each player’s birdie totals:
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dan Hoelke:
8.5
(3)
7.5
(4)
5.5
(6)
6.5
(8)
8.5 (7)
N/A
6.5 (4)
5.5
Scott Woods: 4.5
(3)
5.5
(6)
4.5
(3)
3.5
(4)
5.5 (5) 3.5
(2) 4.5 (4)
3.5
Eric
Drossner: 2.5
(4)
5.5
(2)
2.5
(4)
3.5
(2)
2.5 (4) 2.5(4)
3.5 (4)
3.5
Paul
Rovner: 3.5
(4)
3.5
(1)
1.0
(2)
1.5
(3)
3.5 (3) 1.5
(2)
2.5 (0)
0.5
Interesting
as always... The oddmakers believe Stormin' Dan Hoelke is due for a big
year. Eric Drossner has made 4 birdies 3 years in a row (his highest
total), so his line appears to be pretty accurrate. Scott Woods has only
failed to make at least 3 birdies in 1 year in the last 7 years. And, of
course, there is Paul Rovner... the simple question that bettors must ask
themseleves, "Will Rovner birdie this year?" The smart money would seem to
be on his over, but you simply never know...
Over/Under for total Birdies by the
Foursome:
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 (only 3 players played)
2008
2009
18.5 (13)
12.5 (15) 14.5
(17) 19.5
(19)
8.5
(8)
16.5 (12)
15.5
Oddsmakers expected 2008 to be a fairy big year for birdies, but
that did not really turn out. 2 final hole birdies made the total
respectable, but the oddsmakers could not have expected the complete blank
thrown up by Paul Rovner. Oddsmakers have lowered their expectations
somewhat for this year, but stil remain optimistic of an impressive birdie
total. The smart bet would appear to be on the under, but... a couple of
birdies from Rovner and a few more from the other players could result in a
record setting total.
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